Fallout from Crimea

Forget non-proliferation


In 1996, Ukraine sent the last of its Soviet-era nukes off to Russia, completing an agreement that had been negotiated following the breakup of the Soviet Union and the establishment of Ukraine as an independent country.

How much different would the present crisis be if that had never happened?

Which brings us to the logical conclusion for any country in the wake of the current crisis: If you give up your weapons of mass destruction, you're liable to be bullied by any neighbor, declining world power or not, that can mass troops on or near your border. Iran appeared to draw that conclusion based on America's invasion of Iraq; now it's something no nation can afford to ignore. If you think the spread of nukes is a bad thing, the implications in eastern Europe and Asia ought to make you lose a lot of sleep for a good long time. No matter what happens with today "vote" in Crimea - and no matter what the West's ultimate response is - Russia's actions will affect geopolitics for a generation at least.

Paul Berman recently put the Ukraine into historical perspective in an article in the New Republic, with a (somewhat) optimistic spin:

We do seem to be on the brink of Cold War II, which might end up being a long affair. We ought to recall that Cold War I was, despite its reputation, not really a stable era. Russia in its Soviet and post-Soviet incarnations has never succeeded in establishing a zone of tranquility, except for relatively brief periods. The entire concept of Russian domination has proved to be a formula for repeated revolutions. The revolutions of the past took place in 1953, 1956, 1968, 1989, 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2014 (in, respectively, East Germany, Poland and Hungary, Czechoslovakia, everywhere, Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Ukraine). These events suggest a pattern, though, and maybe the pattern should be encouraged. The pattern is a generally eastward drift, and the purpose in encouraging it ought to be what used to be called, in language I never liked, regime change—achieved not of course by military adventures of our own but by the citizens of Moscow and St. Petersburg, aided by whatever peaceful support we can provide.

Article.

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A little dark, but you get the point . . .

Covers

They say you can't judge a book by its cover, but the truth is, most of us do. It's the first and best advertisement for a book we see, and the reason most of us pick up a book by an author we're not familiar with.

The Dreamland series has been blessed with some great cover art. Our next book - due out Memorial Day, by the way - has this fantastic image as its base:

The image tells the key elements of the story: A conflict between the U.S. and Iran in which drones play a key role. (Which is why the title makes sense. By the way, it was our editor, Henry, who came up with the title. My record on titles in the series is so-so.)

This is the cover with all the words:

Germany, Russia, & the Ukraine


If the response to the Russian incursions in the Ukraine are economic - another way of saying impose sanctions rather than sending troops - it's Germany, not America, that will be the key player. Whether Germans want that role or not.

Russia is, at best, a minor trade partner with the U.S. - one reason that it's easy for Putin to use his caricature of America as a straw man to prop himself up. Germany, on the other hand, does significant trade with Russia. The relationship is certainly symbiotic - Russia supplies 30 percent of Germany's natural gas, according to some estimates - but given Russia's present economic shape, Germany has far more leverage than it seems ready to use.

In the years since the end of the Cold War - and more importantly the reunification of the country - German policy toward Russia has been mostly one of quiet engagement and occasional accommodation. That made sense in the immediate aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union; it helped encourage democratic reforms. But that period has ended - and in fact ended with invasion of Georgia by Russian troops in 2008. Indeed, it was that incident and the tepid Western response that in many ways set the stage for the present crisis.

To apply economic pressure, Germany and the rest of the western European countries have to do more than simply freeze a few bank accounts. They have to make a serious dent in Russia's revenues. A significant drop in oil and gas revenue would threaten Putin's regime far more than a democracy movement in the Ukraine; if you're going to apply economic pressure on him, that's how to do it.

The real problem is - what happens then? Does the West (and here the U.S. is a major player along with Germany) really want to take responsibility for the Ukraine's economy?

Call me cynical, but I don't see that happening. Just as I don't see Germany cutting its Russian gas purchases by twenty-five percent any time soon.

Russia and its enablers


For all of the chest thumping and breast beating rhetoric about the Ukraine and Russia, few people are actually looking at the interrelation between Russia and Western monied interests that have acted as something of enablers for the present regime.

There are exceptions. Here's an excerpt from an article by Anne Applebaum in Slate:

American readers may not realize the extent to which millionaires and billionaires from the former Soviet Union dominate the London art and property markets. Some of that money represents oil profits. But some of it comes from theft.

That tacit decision to accept all Russian money at face value has come home to roost in the past week. Some of the general European reluctance to apply economic sanctions to Russia is of course directly related to the Russian investments, interests, and clients of European companies and banks. But in fact, the laundering of Russian money into acceptability, in both Europe and the United States, has had far more important consequences in Russia itself.

Article.

I wouldn't go as far as Applebaum in saying that the U.S. and Europe are complicit in the invasion or even the bullying that is part and parcel of present Russian foreign policy, but Americans and especially Europeans are definitely making money from Russian corruption and thievery. And Europe - Germany especially - can put far more pressure on Russia economically than most people seem to think.

In the end, Russia as a country isn't going to benefit from Putin's foreign policy, let alone the thievery behind it. The country is now essentially a petro-economy, selling natural resources while failing to invest the proceeds in sustainable industries. The real danger is that Russia - a land of vast human resources and creativity - will sink into a Third World-like hole, becoming a North Korea with oil. I don't think that's going to happen - Russians are far too savvy, resourceful and, yes, cynical about their leaders - but the direction of things makes that an unfortunate possibility.

Russia vs. . .  Italy?

From the Washington Post:

Q. How strong is Russia’s Black Sea Fleet?

A. As a war-fighting force, it’s not particularly impressive. Its main vessel was basically built to fight other ships and so is only useful in fighting a naval war. It’s got the Moskva, an aging guided-missile cruiser; a large anti-submarine warfare cruiser — very dated; a destroyer and two frigates, which are more versatile; landing ships; and a diesel attack submarine. It’s not a particularly powerful force. The Italian navy alone could easily destroy it.

Story.

I'm not quite sure who gets the worst of that comparison. As for what it says about the Ukrainian navy . . .

Amazon.com explained . . .

. . . and a fairly decent overview of the book business at the New Yorker here.

Excerpt:

 Publishers’ dependence on Amazon, however unwilling, keeps growing. Amazon constitutes a third of one major house’s retail sales on a given week, with the growth chart pointing toward fifty per cent. By contrast, independents represent under ten per cent, and one New York editor said that only a third of the three thousand brick-and-mortar bookstores still in existence would remain financially healthy if publishers didn’t waive certain terms of payment. 

Ukrainian fantasies. . . 


Apparently not content with the bang up job he did as Jimmy Carter's national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski now advocates sending U.S. airborne troops to eastern Europe so Russia knows . . . what, exactly?

Brzezinski:

. . . Much depends on how clearly the West conveys to the dictator in the Kremlin — a partially comical imitation of Mussolini and a more menacing reminder of Hitler — that NATO cannot be passive if war erupts in Europe. If Ukraine is crushed while the West is simply watching, the new freedom and security in bordering Romania, Poland and the three Baltic republics would also be threatened.

This does not mean that the West, or the United States, should threaten war. But in the first instance, Russia’s unilateral and menacing acts mean the West should promptly recognize the current government of Ukraine as legitimate. Uncertainty regarding its legal status could tempt Putin to repeat his Crimean charade. Second, the West should convey — privately at this stage, so as not to humiliate Russia — that the Ukrainian army can count on immediate and direct Western aid so as to enhance its defensive capabilities. There should be no doubt left in Putin’s mind that an attack on Ukraine would precipitate a prolonged and costly engagement, and Ukrainians should not fear that they would be left in the lurch.

Meanwhile, NATO forces, consistent with the organization’s contingency planning, should be put on alert. High readiness for some immediate airlift to Europe of U.S. airborne units would be politically and militarily meaningful. If the West wants to avoid a conflict, there should be no ambiguity in the Kremlin as to what might be preciptated by further adventurist use of force in the middle of Europe.

Op ed piece in Washington Post.

So let's see if I can understand this. The U.S. (and Europe) have to show they're serious about Russia's attack in the Ukraine by putting troops on alert that they never intend to use, and which they shouldn't use . . . and if Russia brushes away the obsolete and very under-prepared and under-armed Ukraine military, we should help the Ukrainians by giving them money and aid that they will be in no position to use, having already been rolled over by the Russians. And let's avoid embarrassing the Russians all the while.

Brilliant. No wonder the Carter administration achieved so much in foreign affairs and national security.

Civilian drones explained

. . . That would be the aircraft, not the people working behind the counter at DMV.

The FAA recently corrected a number of myths about civilian UAVs, starting with the (clearly erroneous) myth that low altitudes are not regulated by the FAA and ending with a correction on the estimate of how many drones will operate in the near future (not nearly as many as you've heard).

Item (they call them UAS, not UAVs):

There are a lot of misconceptions and misinformation about unmanned aircraft system (UAS) regulations. Here are some common myths and the corresponding facts.

FAA web page.

Thank you!

(We're in the lower right, number 15.)

Cutting beyond the bone


The Defense Secretary earlier this week announced proposed budget cuts that would take the U.S. military to its lowest levels of funding since before World War II. The proposal has gotten surprisingly little attention, and even less analysis.

Fortunately, a few people are pointing out the obvious - the cuts are going to have a dramatic effect not simply on the military but on America's role in the world, and on the world in general.

Dale Brown laid out some notes on what should be done in a recent blog entry, pointing out some of the problems with the technology and force levels envisioned by such a plan:
.

. . . 'Splain this to me, Secretary Hagel: Is the F-35 the solution to trans-Pacific threats that could just as easily shift back to the Middle East at a moments notice? The F-35 is a single-engine short-legged small-payload medium combat jet that has little chance against modern Russian or Chinese fighters.My recommendation: build the offense, IMMEDIATELY . . .

Read the rest of his essay and his specific ideas here.

A lot of the articles about the budget have cited the pre-World War II period and made the obvious case that the world is a lot different than it was in 1940 - and even if it weren't, we wouldn't want to go back.

But there's another case to be made from history. In the immediate aftermath of World War II, the U.S. made dramatic cuts to its military budget. (If you want to get an idea of the magnitude, check out the graphic in this New York Times article. Ignore their editorial.)

Those budget cuts left the U.S. - and the world - in such a precarious position that when the extent of Soviet intentions became known shortly thereafter, the newly created Joint Chiefs of Staff realized that there were insufficient conventional forces to defend Western Europe. Not only was the Korean Conflict shadowed and to a large extent shaped by this concern, but the early Cold War - the nuclear arms race especially - was heavily influenced by the weakened posture of the U.S., both materially and psychologically. The generals and admirals as well as the civilian leaders responsible for military and foreign policy found themselves compensating for what they perceived as a great weakness. Even with Korea raging, many were convinced not only that there would be another war in Europe, but that the U.S. and its allies would lose it unless many nuclear weapons were used - which would represent an even greater loss.

History is not always a prologue; the world is a complicated place. But it does teach us that we have to do a lot more than count pennies. Our position in the world depends on many things - commerce and invention even more than the military - but we can't ignore how they are all interrelated. In the end, big cuts may mean less peace, not more.

We seem to be in a period when Americans are afraid to cast too big a shadow on the world. Worse, we seem to be afraid to dream big, to have big ambitions. We're too focused on penny-pinching - and not just when it comes to the federal budget.

This will pass, as it always does; America has always been a place for ambitious dreams. The only question is what it will take for those dreams to become a reality.

Thank you everyone . . .

We hit number 15 on the NY Times best seller list in our debut week. Thanks for reading!

On TV

Immigrants, grandparents, & Johnny


Sometimes during interviews, people ask questions and I don't answer as well as I think I could. Usually I rebound, but one of the things I've had difficulty explaining about CODE NAME JOHNNY WALKER has been why the book was so emotional to write.

Part of the reason has to do with the circumstances - it was very connected to my friend Chris Kyle, who was murdered during the time I was working on it. But the larger reason, I think, is that in many ways Johnny's experiences as an immigrant echo the experiences of all immigrants to America, including my own grandparents'. There are certainly differences and nuances - neither of my grandfathers worked with SEALs, for example - but the underlying story of struggling to provide your family, working to make your native country better, then finally deciding that you had no future but America is absolutely the same. Talking with Johnny made me understand how they must have felt when they came to the U.S.

Books are always different for readers than they are for the people who write them. I expect that most people reading CODE NAME JOHNNY WALKER will focus on the danger and excitement of the war; it's really a page-turner in that regard. And there are plenty of other issues and emotions I hope the book will evoke. But for me, working on it reminded me that "freedom" isn't just a fancy word, but a real thing, and the right to "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" is something none of us should ever take for granted.

Signings


Johnny and I will be in the Southern California area this week for our book, CODE NAME: JOHNNY WALKER. Some of the signings we have planned:

Wednesday, Feb. 19:

11:30AM to 1:00PM CAMP PENDLETON SIGNING

BOOK SIGNING Marine Corps Exchange, Bldg 2010 New Exchange

Camp Pendleton, CA 92055

* * *

Friday, Feb 21:

11:00AM to 2:00PM MIRAMAR MAIN EXCHANGE SIGNING

BOOK SIGNING Bldg 2660-MCAS Miramar

45233 Antares Dr.

San Diego, CA 92145

* * *

Saturday, Feb 22:

3:00PM to 5:00PM BAY BOOKS SIGNING

BOOK SIGNING 1029 Orange Ave

Coronado, CA 92118


Look for updates on the book's Facebook page.

On the road, on the air . . .


I'm about a third of the way through a promotion blitz for CODE NAME JOHNNY WALKER; so far Johnny and I have been on everything from Mike Huckabee to MSNBC. We taped an event Monday night in New York which will be aired Saturday evening on CSPAN. Johnny was great and hopefully I don't look too foolish....

The link to the webpage is here.

A best book . . .

The Christian Science Monitor has this to say about Code Name: Johnny Walker, naming it one of the best books of February:

For those who think they’ve heard the last word on the Iraq War, Code Name: Johnny Walker is an eye-opener. “Johnny,” the memoir’s author (with Jim DeFelice), is an Iraqi who spent nearly six years as an interpreter for US Navy SEALs during the worst of the fighting there. Johnny is a man of action; he fights alongside his American brothers and uses his wits to protect them while apprehending perpetrators of unspeakable violence. The drama is riveting, as are Johnny’s insights on the war, America, and Iraq.  

Story.

Joking with Johnny

Johnny Walker and I have started doing combined interviews in preparation for the launch of our book next week. One of the things that I hope comes out in the interviews is his sense of humor. He's actually a very funny guy. Usually on purpose; sometimes not.

The book is about very serious times, so there's not all that much humor in it; hopefully some of it peeks out. And the language and culture barriers sometimes make it hard to understand his jokes. But he's a great tease.

Of course, sometimes he's just funny because he's Johnny. Add in cultural differences and the language, and it can make for some entertaining moments.

While we were working on the book, we would occasionally go for long drives in the mountains. Johnny sometimes found it easier to talk there. He's a pretty contemplative guy, and there's something about being surrounded by nature that makes it easier not just to think but to give voice to it. The drives also took us away from most distractions, both his and mine, since there was no cell coverage.

One afternoon we were driving on a deserted, winding road, when suddenly Johnny began speeding up. I looked over and realized he was playing chicken with a Hell's Angel motorcycle rider. At 80-plus. I'm not saying the road we were on was narrow or winding or high, but out my passenger side window all I could see was sky, even when I was looking down.

Racing a motorcycle across a mountain road in a sports car is one thing; doing it in a Toyota with a four-cylinder engine is quite another. Put it this way: I not only buckled my seat belt but had to grab on to something to keep from flying around the front through the turns. At several points we had less than four wheels on the pavement. (I imagine some people will point out that's the way I drive. But that's different: I'm driving.)

"You scared?" Johnny asked as we flew across a hairpin turn.

"Just seeing my life pass before my eyes," I answered.

Johnny kept racing, and eventually the Hell's Angel either ran out of gas or decided that we were crazier than he was, because he disappeared. (Now that I think about it, it's very possible he drove off the side of the road.) Johnny kept going, a little faster and a little closer to the edge, until eventually we got to where we were going.

"You weren't scared, is good," said Johnny as we got out of the car. "But if you were scared, I would slow down."

I guess that was good to know. Someday I'll explain what seeing your life pass before your eyes means to him, but in the meantime, I try to remember to phrase things in the most direct way possible.

Journalists who can't shoot straight


This is why people think the news media is stupid: A spy agency intercepts a communication between diplomats and posts it on YouTube, and the news media acts as if it's an immaculate interception.*

"Someone" - clearly Russia, clearly on behalf of the Russian government - posted an intercepted conversation between U.S. officials on the Ukraine crisis on YouTube. (You can hear it here.) The idea was clearly to embarrass the U.S., and was part of the ham-fisted campaign to keep the Ukraine from aligning itself with Western Europe.

The conversation isn't anything you wouldn't expect, though the fact that one of the diplomats uses an un-diplomatic four-letter verb has given a few headline writers something to focus on. But the people writing about it seem utterly clueless about what governments and spy agencies do.

Here's AP diplomatic writer Matthew Lee trying to make sense of it:

The practice of eavesdropping on the phone calls of other governments — even between allies — was the first diplomatic fallout from the publication of documents taken by former National Security Agency analyst Edward Snowden. The documents he took and that were published in such newspapers as The Washington Post, the New York Times and The Guardian showed that the United States listened in to the phone calls of allies such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel was outraged, and part of the U.S. response was that such practice is common on both sides around the world.

Read more here: http://www.thestate.com/2014/02/06/3248847/us-sees-russian-hand-in-envoys.html#storylink=cpy

Story.

"Fallout"? A result of Snowden???? What??? There was never any spying before Snowden defected to Russia????

The BBC can't decide if the conversation was hacked . . .

An apparently hacked phone conversation during which a senior US diplomat disparages the EU over the Ukraine crisis has been posted online.

BBC

or bugged . . .

An apparently bugged phone conversation in which a senior US diplomat disparages the EU over the Ukraine crisis has been posted online

(BBC report.)

. . . though at least they do hint that hey, maybe it was the Russians who were behind it. You can't really expect too much, since when listening to the conversation they can't correctly report what they heard.

The NY Times at least calls the conversation "intercepted," but the slant of its story toward Russia makes it seem like the reporter started with a Russian press release in hand.

In the end, it's just another reminder of how limited the sources of our information are, and how easily they are manipulated.

As for the "leaked" conversation itself - it will have zero effect on anything happening in the Ukraine. Although I am impressed anytime anyone uses the F word correctly.

* I like the idea of using YouTube as an instrument of government policy, but that's not exactly new.

On Johnny:

Big story in today's DAILY MAIL:

Death-defying Iraqi adopted by the SEALs: Elite interpreter who formed a bond with elite soldiers and started new life in the US with help of comrades including Chris Kyle

• An Iraqi interpreter, who calls himself Johnny Walker, has told how he helped nail so many terrorists for American troops that Al Qaeda made him a target 

• The terrorist organization put a $50,000 bounty on his head he reveals in a new book 'Code Name: Johnny Walker' 

• He survived two assassination attempts and threats to his family because he believed America was doing the right thing in the 2003 Iraq War

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2552004/Johnny-Walker-book-The-death-defying-Iraqi-interpreter-went-missions-Navy-SEAL-Iraq-started-new-life-US-help-thankful-comrades-including-deadliest-sniper-Chris-Kyle.html#ixzz2sSt9y4tk
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Writer at work . . .

It's a snow day . . . 12 o'clock beer rule is suspended...

NYC reading February 10


My co-author "Johnny Walker" and I will be discussing CODE NAME JOHNNY WALKER next Monday, February 10 beginning at 7 p.m. at our favorite New York City bar/literary hangout, the Half King, 505 West 23rd Street.

We hope you can make it. More details here: http://www.thehalfking.com/calendar/2014/walker.htm

(The Half King is a great place and a real friend of writers, owned by Scott Anderson, Nanette Burstein, and Sebastian Junger. More info on it here.)

In memory

A year ago this Sunday, I woke up around four a.m. as I often do, and went into my office to get some work done before my official day of rest. My phone was blinking with calls. I picked it up and saw that there were not only a number of missed calls but many texts as well. I started scrolling through, and didn't believe what I was reading.

My friend Chris Kyle had been murdered.

I still don't believe it, really. A part of me wants to think it's just a very, very sick joke. But the larger part of me knows it's true. The best among us are the first to leave.

People have asked me what the best way is to remember Chris. I say you can honor him by following his advice: Make a difference with little things. See a veteran, thank a veteran. Lend a hand to a serviceman's wife or kid - cut the grass, babysit. Spend a little time with a wounded warrior, or an older neighbor. Be yourself, generously.

Chris will forever be known as the greatest American sniper up through the Iraq war and probably beyond, but that doesn't capture a tenth of who he was. And that's a message for all of us: You don't have to be a high achiever or the absolute best at what you do to make a difference in people's lives.

It was my great honor and privilege to know Chris Kyle, and by God's grace I will do my bit to keep his memory alive.

Dennis Rodman and North Korea

Can't say this any better

[Richard] Marcinko has some thoughts on our “unofficial ambassador” to North Korea, former NBA star Dennis Rodman, who recently checked into rehab for alcoholism.

“When you recognize that North Koreans know nothing about the outside world, to think that Dennis Rodman represents us in any way is ludicrous,” Marcinko said. “And certainly, for the mass population there, if they thought there were more of him around, you can understand why they should launch a nuke.”

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2014/01/30/seal-team-6-founder-richard-marcinko-slams-dennis-rodman-says-movies-encourage/

Code Name Johnny Walker

We're on Facebook (duh)

A bit of a program note:

We're using our Facebook page as a central gathering place for information, etc., related to CODE NAME JOHNNY WALKER. Here's the link.

We have signings and a bunch of TV and radio interviews planned and will post them at the page.

RIP, folk singer.

The "I" of the storm . . .

Jonathon Mahler had a piece in the NYT the other day that, while using the controversy over “Dr. V’s Magical Putter,” was really aimed at the overuse of first-person narrative in nonfiction.

Mahler makes excellent points, but I do have a quibble, as he seems to blame a great deal of the overuse on the internet and the latest fads. But first person narratives where the journalist becomes the driving character of the story have been extremely popular at least since “New Journalism,” which is pretty much “long form” journalism under an earlier (if not necessarily more accurate) name.

In the right hands and on the right subject – think Tom Wolfe – the journalist as character is an effective tool. If the article is constructed in a way that the reader can both identify with the character and learn something through that identification, then all is well. But in far, far too many places – even those magazines Mahler cites approvingly – the “I” is simply an egotist getting in the way of what’s really important.

I think the real lesson for writers has to do with humility, a quality far undervalued in modern times. And, as “Dr. V’s Magical Putter” shows, writing can sometimes reveal much about the writer and what he or she doesn’t know.

As for the original story, it's here.

In the News . . .

Thanks, everyone, for the kinds words about the NY Sunday News story. We really appreciate it. And thank you, Daily News.

(I can't find a link to an online version, but I'll post it if we get one.)

See more US News from ABC|World News

Coming next month

Details to follow.

Website, Facebook

Health care's problem . . .

. . . is cost, not insurance.

Item:

Doctors’ charges — and the incentives they reflect — are a major factor in the nation’s $2.7 trillion medical bill. Payments to doctors in the United States, who make far more than their counterparts in other developed countries, account for 20 percent of American health care expenses, second only to hospital costs.

Well, duh. Still the NYT story, focusing on specialists and the absurdity of their charges, is worth reading.

'Preventable'

Benghazi, that is. So says the bi-partisan Senate investigation. From the Washington Post:

The committee determined that the U.S. military command in Africa didn’t know about the CIA annex and didn’t have the resources to defend the diplomatic compound in an emergency.

“The attacks were preventable, based on extensive intelligence reporting on the terrorist activity in Libya—to include prior threats and attacks against Western targets—and given the known security shortfalls at the U.S. Mission,” the panel said in a statement.

Full story.

CollegeHumor's Favorite Funny Videos

The yin and yanked of the writing life

Two great reads from Sunday NY Times (subscription required.)

On the one hand . . .

A few years ago, I learned that the ­in-store book club of the old Barnes & Noble on Sixth Avenue in Chelsea was going to be reading a novel of mine, “Dreamland.” There were signs around the store announcing when the club would meet, inviting anyone to take part.

I was flattered. The book had already been out for a while, but I thought I might condescend to stop by and ask if the club members had any questions, maybe soak up a little adoration. 

Story

On the other . . .

You might not know me, but I’m famous. Don’t feel bad. Until recently, I didn’t know I was famous either, and most days, even now, it’s hard to tell.

Story.

The case against Iran . . .

. . . and for bombing its nuclear facilities. From Foreign Affairs:

A truly comprehensive diplomatic settlement between Iran and the West is still the best possible outcome, but there is little reason to believe that one can be achieved. And that means the United States may still have to choose between bombing Iran and allowing it to acquire a nuclear bomb. That would be an awful dilemma. But a limited bombing campaign on Iran’s nuclear facilities would certainly be preferable to any attempt to contain a nuclear-armed Iran.

Article by Matthew Kroenig.

Fallujah, cont. . . .


The perspective of guys who were there, from the NY Times:

For many veterans of that battle — most now working in jobs long removed from combat — watching insurgents running roughshod through the streets they once fought to secure, often in brutal close-quarters combat, has shaken their faith in what their mission achieved. . . .
“This is just the beginning of the reckoning and accounting,” said Kael Weston, a former State Department political adviser who worked with the Marines for nearly three years in Falluja and the surrounding Anbar Province, and later with Marines in Afghanistan. . . .
“The news went viral in the worst way,” he said. “This has been a gut punch to the morale of the Marine Corps and painful for a lot of families who are saying, ‘I thought my son died for a reason.’ ”

Story.

In terms of history, I find the parallel to Khe Sanh, like all parallels to Vietnam, more than a little strained, but I think it's an accurate portrayal of what these guys feel.

Iraq


From the Christian Science Monitor, a somewhat better story than most on Iraq, as it gets at some of the subtleties most of the mainstream press misses:

Iraq has a major crisis on its hands, make no mistake.

The country's civil war never really ended – it just went off the boil for a while. Last year, the heat was turned back to high, with the number of civilian deaths from political violence doubling to roughly 8,000 people over the previous year, the highest civilian death toll since at least 2008.

With the civil war raging in Syria and a porous border between Syria and Iraq's Anbar and Nineveh Provinces that has allowed militants – many of them jihadis in the style of Al Qaeda – to flow back and forth pretty much at will, Iraq's central government has a major challenge on its hands. It doesn't help that Iraq has parliamentary elections scheduled for this April and that its political polarization breaks down largely on sectarian lines.

Story. (Make sure to follow the jump.)

I disagree with some of his conclusions in one important respect - the crisis clearly could lead to practical autonomy for different regions of the country, which is presumably one of the overall aims of the mujihadeen (who over course would then attempt to dominate that region). In that respect, it's more serious than the writer seems to suggest, though he does leave that question open.

A couple of things to note:

1. Many Iraqis use "al Qaeda" as shorthand for Sunni mujihadeen groups in general, without necessarily distinguishing between the different groups or their affiliations, how close they are to the bin Laden organization (or each other). So it's very confusing for a westerner to parse the different alliances.

2. Tribal alliances are still very significant in the politics of Iraq, and the fighting.

3. There is a general feeling among Sunnis that the present government is not only overly dominated by Shiites, but is a handmaiden of Shia Iran. There is an element there of nationalism that is often missed -- some feel that Iran is making Iraq a subordinate client state, and the present government is helping them do it. Many Iraqis can cite numerous insults against the country, starting with the position (or non-presence) of the Iraqi flag on state visits to Iran by dignitaries, and vice versa.

The Rogue returns . . .

Rogue Warrior: Curse of the Infidel is on sale today. You can get it online at Amazon, B&N, etc., or at your favorite local bookstore, including that great independent you've been meaning to check out.

Excerpts and other links.

This one starts with Dick getting whipped in Saudi Arabia. The question is whether he likes it or not . . .

Amnesty for Snowden?

Give me a break.

I don't know why there's even a debate. But if you really think there should be an argument for it. Start here:

Many have likened Snowden’s actions to Daniel Ellsberg’s leaking of the Pentagon Papers. (Ellsberg himself has made the comparison.) But the Pentagon Papers were historical documents on how the United States got involved in the Vietnam War. Ellsberg leaked them (after first taking them to several senators, who wanted nothing to do with them) in the hopes that their revelations would inspire pressure to end the war. It’s worth noting that he did not leak several volumes of the Papers dealing with ongoing peace talks. Nor did he leak anything about tactical operations. Nor did he go to North Vietnam and praise its leaders (as Snowden did in Russia).

The rest of the argument is here. (And yes, it's an argument that he should NOT be considered anything but a traitor - regardless of what you think about the NSA, the Patriot Act, et al.)

Iraq update

Falluja, Ramadi fall . . .

. . . under mujaheddin control.

The continued unrest in Iraq has hit two key cities, both of which were secured at great cost under the American occupation:

BAGHDAD — Radical Sunni militants aligned with Al Qaeda threatened on Thursday to seize control of Falluja and Ramadi, two of the most important cities in Iraq, setting fire to police stations, freeing prisoners from jail and occupying mosques, as the government rushed troop reinforcements to the areas.

Story. Ignore the tortured attempt to connect this to Syria. And know that there's a lot more going on than "peaceful" encampments - there have been numerous IED attacks over the past several months. This is only the tip of the iceberg, as undoubtedly the Times reporter in Mosul knows.

Why you can't get real lightbulbs any more

Capitalism is too hard.

Item:

Say goodbye to the regular light bulb this New Year.

For more than a century, the traditional incandescent bulb was the symbol of American innovation. Starting Jan. 1, the famous bulb is illegal to manufacture in the U.S., and it has become a fitting symbol for the collusion of big business and big government.

Story.

The definition of "chutzpah"

Item:

BOSTON (AP) - A man charged with trying to bilk the Boston Marathon bombing victims' fund out of more than $2 million has filed a federal lawsuit claiming state police violated his constitutional rights when they arrested him.

Branden Mattier, 23, alleges police misconduct and is seeking $100,000 in damages, according to the suit filed in U.S. District Court in Boston on Dec. 23 and reported Tuesday by the Boston Herald.

Mattier, of Boston, and his brother filed a claim with The One Fund using the name of a dead aunt, prosecutors said. They claimed she had lost both legs in the attack. Mattier was arrested July 2 when he allegedly accepted a fake check for almost $2.2 million from an undercover state trooper posing as a delivery driver.

His suit says state police never received permission from The One Fund to make a phony check in the organization's name.

Story.

Why some people still smoke . . .

Item:

The tobacco hornworm or Manduca sexta chases away its predators by its nasty nicotine breath, a new study has revealed. The bug uses a nifty trick to convert some of its food into a cloud of poisonous compound that repels its enemies.

Story.

Works on humans, too.

Drone touching . . . or not

Item:

The Federal Aviation Administration on Monday said it had selected sites in a handful of states to test unmanned aircraft systems, a crucial step in the integration of drones into the national airspace.

The FAA selected teams based in Virginia, Alaska, Nevada, New York, North Dakota and Texas. Several teams included other states in their bids, meaning drone testing will also take place in Hawaii, Oregon and New Jersey.

Each test site will be responsible for testing drones in a different context. Nevada, for instance, will do much of the research on unmanned vehicles’ impact on air traffic control. North Dakota will test the data links between drones and their controllers. New York will test the sense-and-avoid technologies crucial for keeping drones away from people and other aircraft. . . .

. . . because in New York we're sensitive about touching, especially where drones are concerned.

Story.

What downsizing feels like . . . 



. . . at least one ex-employee could find the humor ... the company didn't, and "suspended" him a few hours before laying him off. Kind of shows why they couldn't make the stores work in the first place, actually.

Benghazi redux, review, revise . . .


The NYT takes a shot at Benghazi:

Yet as the militiamen snacked on Twinkie-style cakes with their American guests, they also gushed about their gratitude for President Obama’s support in their uprising against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi. They emphasized that they wanted to build a partnership with the United States, especially in the form of more investment. They specifically asked for Benghazi outlets of McDonald’s and KFC.

The diplomat, David McFarland, a former congressional aide who had never before met with a Libyan militia leader, left feeling agitated, according to colleagues. But the meeting did not shake his faith in the prospects for deeper involvement in Libya. 

Story.

You get the feeling that the story about the murder of the Americans there will be onion-like in its layers and Rorschach-like in its interpretations . . . and that the full story will ultimately never be revealed.

Maybe it can only be told in fiction. Where's Graham Greene when you need him?

Thanks . . .

. . . to everyone for making "Hog Noel" one of the top five free books in its categories this past week.

Unfortunately, we now have to charge for the story. It's set at the lowest price we're allowed, 99 cents. Hopefully, you think it's worth it.

It's here if you haven't read it.

Iraq continues to boil . . .

Item:

Iraqi forces have arrested an MP, killing his brother and five of his guards during a raid on his home in the western city of Ramadi.

Ahmed al-Awlani, a member of the Sunni community, had backed protests against the mainly Shia government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and was reportedly wanted on terrorism charges.

Police said Mr Awlani's guards opened fire as officers arrived to detain him.
Another 18 people were wounded in the ensuing skirmish, an official said.

BBC story.

We think of the war as over, but in fact there is more sectarian violence in Iraq than when the U.S. pulled out. On the one hand, al Qaeda extremists are targeting anyone working with the government, and recently staged some prominent attacks in Baghdad. On the other hand, the Shiite-dominated government is widely viewed by Sunnis (and some Shiites) as being a puppet of Iran. It all makes for a bloody mess.

What's interesting in this "arrest" - besides the possible unconstitutionality of it - is the fact that it took place in Ramadi, a city that saw a great deal of fighting during the American occupation. (We touch on a small part of the battle in American Sniper.) Ramadi was immediately declared a success of American kumbaya policy* - more a pr a statement than something factual.

Nation-building was mostly bullshit; the heavy lifting was done by American bullets and bombs. Once the Americans left, the fighting resumed and will undoubtedly continue to escalate.

* After the folk song where everyone joins hands around the fire and lives happily ever after.

If you like the movie . . .

. . . A Christmas Story (the tale of Jean Shepherd's childhood Christmas), you'll want to check out this article by Donald Fagen.

Item:

 . . .Long before A Christmas Story was made, [Jean] Shepherd did a nightly radio broadcast on WOR out of Manhattan that enthralled a generation of alienated young people within range of the station's powerful transmitter. Including me: I was a spy for Jean Shepherd.

Story on Slate.

Wishing all a merry Christmas . . .

. . .  may peace and happiness be under your tree and in your lives this year.

Merry Christmas!

This one stars A-Bomb, and it's free for as long as I'm allowed to give it away at Amazon.

Kalashnikov dies

Item:

Mikhail Kalashnikov, the former Red Army sergeant behind one of the world’s most omnipresent weapons — the AK-47 and its variants and copies, used by national armies, terrorists, drug gangs, bank robbers, revolutionaries and jihadists — died Dec. 23 at a hospital in Izhevsk, Russia. He was 94.

Story.

Without doubt, the AK was and remains the most important rifle made after World War II. Admired, criticized, copied, but never quite duplicated.

James Ferro, not . . .


My wife brought up a good point about the Hogs series - why are the short stories, which were never published and in fact only recently written, credited by "Jim DeFelice writing as James Ferro"?

Pseudonyms die hard, I guess.

Free - but not yet

A new Hogs Christmas story is offered on Kindle here. But don't get it today - it's free from Christmas Eve through Saturday. (The regular price is 99 cents.)

I'd prefer it was free forever, but Amazon won't let me do that.

Coming soon . . .

. . .  to a Kindle near you - a free Hogs Christmas story.

Unfortunately, the way our arrangement with Amazon works, the story can only be offered free for a very limited time - five days. After that, we have to charge for it, and it has to be offered for sale for a total of ninety days or something along those lines. We will set the price as low as is allowed.

Look for it early next week - I'll post when it's up.

Questions . . .

. . . and a few answers.

Ethan Jones is kindly hosting a Q & A with me this week at his site:

http://ethanjonesbooks.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/10-questions-with-jim-defelice/

Check out the site: there are a lot more interesting things going on over there than my babbling.

Most of the questions have to do with the Rogue Warrior series, but there are a couple on writing in general. One question I wasn't asked but often am about Rogue: Which is my favorite book? The answer is easy - the original nonfiction memoir, which Dick wrote with John Weisman.

At the moment, though, the most relevant is Dictator's Ransom, which is about North Korea and the problems of succession . . . as the father of ST6 would say, was it fiction or prediction?

Lone Survivor




The 60 Minutes interview, part 1.



Part 2.

The movie depicting the battle will open just after Christmas.

Jail's too good for him

Item:

John Donald Cody, who operated under the pseudonym Commander Bobby Thompson, was fined more than $6 million in addition to the prison sentence for overseeing a bogus charity called the U.S. Navy Veterans Association, which preyed on people's sympathy for American military veterans at a time of war.

The charges of theft, fraud, money laundering and the use of false identities stemmed from Cody's stewardship of the organization, which raised millions, but when examined by authorities, offered little proof that money was used to assist veterans.

Story.

In North Korea, things get crazier

Item:

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea said on Friday that Jang Song-thaek, the uncle of its leader Kim Jong-un and considered his mentor, was executed for trying to mobilize the military to stage a coup.

Story.

Purge to follow. The only question is what follows that.

Even the Chinese are worried. Meanwhile, Dennis Rodman will visit in a week.

Cookies, my precious . . .

Iran's nuclear missile program isn't on hold

Delivering monkeys . . .

. . . or nukes?


Item:

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran will launch its 7th research rocket called Kavoshgar (Explorer) into space by the end of the next week, Deputy Defense Minister and Head of Iran's Aerospace Organization General Mehdi Farahi announced on Tuesday.

“Kavoshgar 7 will be launched next week as the next part of the plan to send living creatures into space,” Farahi said in Kish Island today.

Story. (The photo there is of a much less capable rocket.)

That's a new word for it

Item:

19-Year-Old Will Lose His Virginity in Front of a Crowd for the Sake of Art

Story.

Although it may be significant that he's 19, still a virgin, and willing to admit it . . .

'Early' King

An interview with Stephen King when he was still relatively young - and had "only" ten best-sellers.

A knock on NOCs . . .


Item:

Twelve years after the CIA began a major push to get its operatives out of embassy cubicles and into foreign universities, businesses and other local perches to collect intelligence on terrorists and rogue nations, the effort has been a disappointment, current and former U.S. officials say. Along with other parts of the CIA, the budget of the so-called Global Deployment Initiative, which covers the NOC program, is now being cut.

"It was a colossal flop," a former senior CIA official said in sentiments echoed by a dozen former colleagues, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a classified program.

Story:

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-cia-spies-20131208,0,3603017.story#ixzz2myO2v3qx

What Boeing wants


Boeing has decided to move production of one of its newest aircraft production out of Washington, and is looking for a "friendly" state to locate in. Here's how they define friendly:

Among the “desired incentives” sought by Boeing, the biggest items are these:

• “Site at no cost, or very low cost, to project.”
• “Facilities at no cost, or significantly reduced cost.”
• “Infrastructure improvements provided by the location.”

Additional incentives it lists include:

• Assistance in recruiting, evaluating and training employees.
• A low tax structure, with “corporate income tax, franchise tax, property tax, sales/use tax, business license/gross receipts tax, and excise taxes to be significantly reduced.”
• “Accelerated permitting for site development, facility construction, and environmental permitting.”

Other factors that will be “significant” when Boeing makes its choice early next year include:

• Low overall cost of doing business, “including local wages, utility rates, logistics costs, real estate occupancy costs, construction costs, applicable tax structure obligations.”
• The quality, cost and productivity of the available workforce.
• Predictability of utilities pricing and government regulation.

Story.

Basically, the world's leading manufacturer of aircraft is looking for a deal similar to what Russian oligarchs get from Russia. Actually, a little better.

Why don't they ask for a baseball stadium and call it a day?

Goodnight

Three against one . . .


F-35 or F-18 Super Hornet: It’s really not that complicated from RaceRocks on Vimeo.


Is more better? Ah, if only it were that simple  . . .

HOGS 6 now an ebook . . .

Book 6 in the Hogs series, now available on Kindle here. We're working on the Nook edition . . .

Beware of blast

Today's project . . .



When the tough gotta get where the tough gotta go.

Will zeppelins fly again?

Watch out, UPS . . .

Amazon's drones may be OK for delivering a book or a pair of gloves, but how do you deliver a big Cat dozer to Siberia?

Robin Young of Amur Minerals Corp wants to dig for nickel and copper in Siberia where forbidding winters and poor roads make it tough to haul in equipment. His best option: fly it in with zeppelins.

Story.

Iran bobs and weaves . . .

Item:

 TEHRAN: Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehihas said Tehran will never abandon the Arak heavy water reactor, considering it a "red line" in talks with world powers, media reported on Sunday.

"Your actions and words show you don't want us to have the Arak heavy water reactor which means you want to deprive us of our rights,"Salehi was quoted as saying by the website of state broadcaster IRIB.
"But you should know that it is a red line which we will never cross, likewise enrichment" of uranium.Arak is of concern because, in theory, it could provide the Islamic republic with plutonium - an alternative to highly enriched uranium used for a nuclear bomb.

Story. (It's been interesting to see the coverage in Indian newspapers, which has much more intensive than American or European.)