Mumbai



The Taj hotel burning. The image is from the NY Times.


The brutal and senseless mass murder in Mumbai the last week of November have generated tons of commentary. The unspoken assumption of a great deal of it is that the terrorists are winning, and we are powerless to stop them from achieving their goals.
Bullshit on both counts.

The attack achieved one goal – murdering people. That, unfortunately, is a very easy thing to do. Psychotic madmen – and these men clearly qualify – accomplish that all the time.

But from a tactical point of view – if we suppose that the goal of the terrorists had anything to do with the struggle in Kashmir – the raid was an utter failure. India’s response will surely not be to step back its efforts against the group there, and it is laughable to think the attack will result in any sort of political concessions.

As far as achieving long-term strategic goals, the attack may benefit the ultimate sponsors, who are clearly the cadre of demented sociopaths imbedded in the Pakistan military and intelligence structure. It’s dangerous to assume that sociopaths are interested in anything beyond the sheer joy of murder. But as several commentators have pointed out – check out Benjamin’s story on Slate (http://www.slate.com/id/2205795/) for one well-argued example – if the sponsors of the attack have a “real” goal here, it’s taking (or holding onto) power in Pakistan.

But this raid won’t achieve that either. Rather, it will pressure the Pakistanis to actually face the cancer that has corrupted their core.

Is Pakistan up to that task? Most Western commentators like Daniel Benjamin seem to feel it isn’t. But I don’t think that’s true. The reform movement could have completely collapsed after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto; it didn’t. On the contrary, it’s stronger than before. But the struggle is just beginning. It will be long. It will be hard.

This is not an argument for restraint against terrorists and their sponsors, by India or anyone else. On the contrary, they must be dealt with as harshly as possible. You don’t let murderers continue to roam the countryside with guns and bombs, whatever they call themselves. You kill them before they kill more people. You do, however, remember your long-term interests as you proceed.

The real irony is that the terrorists are not only very weak, but that their impotence protects them in a way. If the chaos they revel in were to be carried to its logical conclusion – if the war with India and the West they seem to endorse were actually to occur, they would be completely annihilated. With all respect to my friends in Pakistan, India would obliterate the country in a real all-out war.

Millions of people in both countries would die in a nuclear war, and I’m not advocating what would be the worst worldwide disaster ever. But it’s a reality that the terrorists themselves don’t believe in.

Then again, all they really believe in is murder.