Iran's satellite

Iran announced today that it had successfully launched a satellite Monday to commemorate the thirtieth anniversary of its revolution.

Despite what you'll read, the surprise isn't that they launched the satellite - they've been working on that for quite a while. What's news is the fact that the launch apparently came without additional test flights of the launch vehicle, the SAFIR-2, which reportedly suffered setbacks during testing this fall. Iran had originally intended on launching its satellite by the end of March 2009, but problems with the rocket were said to have pushed back the time schedule.

Of course, the launch gives rise to all sorts of media stories interpreting it as a direct challenge to the West and Obama. The truth is, the Iranian rocket program - which includes actual nuclear capable missiles, not just "conventional" rockets like SAFIR-2 - has been ongoing for quite some time. So the challenge has been there. Needless to say, the missiles make Iran's ongoing nuclear bomb development program a very serious matter.

Neither the satellite, whose function remains to be seen, nor the rocket pose a direct threat to the U.S. The military missile program, on the other hand, could certainly become a serious regional threat within a few years - with or without any technology transfer between it and a supposedly civilian program.

Did Iran push up the time schedule in an effort to get a better deal from the West on the nuclear program as the world economy - and theirs - threaten to collapse? Could be.

More likely, the guys in charge of the satellite program might just have decided they wanted to keep their jobs.