Flight 447


Reports are now trickling out detailing a series of messages from the airliner that indicate a loss of systems over a three or four minute interval while the aircraft was under manual control and after it had encountered serious (though not necessarily catastrophic) turbulence and lightning. In addition, the debris field is said to contain a large fuel slick, which would tend to rule out the possibility of an explosion involving the main fuel tanks. At the same time, the size of the debris field suggests the plane was in pieces when it came down.

One of the rumored messages - at this point, all leaks and unsourced media reports have to be treated skeptically - relates to an "erroneous speed" at the time the pilot was reporting severe weather, nearly fifteen minutes before the final message, and roughly ten before a series of messages indicating very severe problems aboard the aircraft. Because of the nature of the message (and the reporting), it's not clear what exactly the problem with the speed was, and whether it was due to a sudden weather condition or some problem aboard (or with) the aircraft.

Let me state the obvious: As terrible as this tragedy was, determining its cause may prevent many other deaths in the future.