The future of publishing

While the dispute between Hatchette and Amazon.com appears on the surface a fight between titans, in reality every publisher and author, big and small, has a stake. Frankly, it's hard to be overly optimistic about the effects.

Using Twitter, Michael Tamblyn, the head of Kobo, neatly laid out what's going on and what the future holds. The Twitter feed is here.

Here are the Tweets (glommed from Publisher's Lunch):

1. Indie authors take note: Amazon is, among other things, a machine designed to optimize product prices in order to gain share and sales.

2. AMZN, like every retailer that reaches a certain size, turns to its suppliers to grow profitability by demanding more favourable terms.

3. The Hachette-Amazon fight is an especially public manifestation of that Big Retail process. Nothing new there (Walmart, Target, B&N et al)

4. Some vocal traditionally published authors (but not all) support Hachette and criticize Amazon and…

5. Some vocal independent authors (but not all) support Amazon and criticize Hachette...

6. Defense of Amazon by indie authors makes sense on one level. For them, AMZN is the well-spring, where the self-pub revolution started.

7. But it seems like self-published authors believe they are protected somehow - that what is happening to Hachette won't happen to them.

8. Some indie authors even muse that the best possible strategy is exclusivity with Amazon, leaving readers on other platforms behind.

9. In the long run, I don't think that Amazon makes a big distinction between a publisher and an indy author - they are both suppliers.

10. Hachette and the rest of the big 5 sit at the top of a list of suppliers to be "improved" from Amazon's perspective.

11. Hachette is first because one negotiation with a big publisher makes a lot of bestselling books more profitable. That's efficient.

12. I don't think anyone believes that AMZN will stop with Hachette. With a successful conclusion, all pubs will go through the same thing.

13. They will move down the list. Midsized or smaller publishers come next. (Assuming this all isn't being pursued quietly in parallel.)

14. From Amazon's perspective, how is an independent author any different than a publisher? Still a supplier, to be made more profitable.

15. The indie author's situation is most tenuous of all. If >80% of sales come from AMZN, *no leverage when it's your turn to be "optimized"

16. An indie author, like any publisher, can take her books away if in conflict with AMZN. But it hurts the author *way more than Amazon.

17. A reasonable author response to the AMZN threat wdb: "they won't need to do that to us. Our prices are already where they need to be."

18. (Indy authors on Amazon are penalized if their books are too expensive, so that's largely true.)

19. But that assumes that the AMZN battle is about price. It's not. It's about profit. And _any_ supplier can be made more profitable.

20. If indie authors are 20% of AMZN's total sales, then it's hard to imagine that indie authors aren't on that list to be improved.

21. But if the AMZN battle extends to indie authors, authors will have less leverage. Especially if they are exclusive.

22. The mechanisms for the AMZN squeeze are in place, agreements allow it. Self-pub inclusion in Select, Unlimited, KOLL are early examples.

23. Amazon can and will, as a business, do what it needs to do to _all_ suppliers in time to improve profitability and grow share.

24. Selling other publishers and authors, AMZN can survive without Hachette, but uncomfortably and less profitably.

25. With a diverse base of retailers, Hachette can survive without AMZN, also uncomfortably and less profitably.

26. Both parties having other options is why this dispute wasn't over in a week or a month.

27. The litmus test for an indie author: could your income survive a conflict with Amazon? If not, it's worth thinking about how you could.

28. To paraphrase: "First they came for the big New York publishers, but I wasn't published by a big New York Publisher…"

29. Then they came for the mid-sized publishers, but I wasn't published by a mid-sized publisher...

30. Then they came for the academic presses...

31. Then they came for the literary presses...

32. Then they came for me."

Coming soon . . .

... to a Kindle near you.

Hog Born is a novella - or a very, very long short story - centering on Michael "Skull" Knowlington, the leader of Devil Squadron. a lot of of readers have wondered what he did before the First Gulf War and how he came to command the squadron; Hog Born will give some of those details.

It should be available in a few days.

More Thuds . . .

The case against Amazon

From the New Republic:

In its pursuit of bigness, Amazon has left a trail of destruction—competitors undercut, suppliers squeezed—some of it necessary, and some of it highly worrisome. And in its confrontation with the publisher Hachette, it has entered a phase of heightened aggression unseen even when it tried to crush Zappos by offering a $5 rebate on all its shoes or when it gave employees phony business cards to avoid paying sales taxes in various states.

Article. Probably the best summary of what's at stake, though its suggestions seem unlikely, at least for now.

Chase bank:
Our fault, no; your fault maybe

JP Morgan Chase got hacked big time recently, though by whom and for what purpose remains a mystery - at least publicly. (One of the many stories here.)

I haven't gotten my official notice about the incursion and the reassurances not to panic yet. No doubt it's in the mail.

What was in the mail was a statement with this notice from Chase:

Effective November 16, 2014, we will be updating your agreement. The updated agreement will explain that if you allow anyone to use your bank card, or if you don't exercise ordinary care (examples of not exercising ordinary care: if you keep your PIN with your card, or select your birthday as your PIN) you will be responsible for all authorized and unauthorized transaction . . . 

Translation - if your account gets accessed by a thief, we'll decide whether you were doing a good job protecting it before we decide whether we're liable or not. We promise we'll be reasonable about deciding whether you were reasonable . . .

Would it be reasonable to suggest it's time to update 40-year-old security methods with more secure cards and ATM machines? Nah . . .

According to that Bloomberg link above, by the way, it was an employee password that let the thiefs in. Hopefully it wasn't his or her birthday.

Incidentally, the Federal Trade Commission says personal liability for ATM theft is limited, as long as you quickly report the theft. Here's the link. The banksters haven't changed all the rules yet.

Thuds





Been spending some time with these old birds lately. Details to follow . . .

Turkey fights its own people . . .

. . .  rather than doing anything about ISIS:

Turkish authorities moved Wednesday to stop the spread of violent protests across the predominantly Kurdish southeast of the country, fueled by the refusal of the Ankara government to intervene to protect Kurds in neighboring Syria against an Islamic State onslaught.

WSJ story here.

Question: Why even pretend you're part of NATO?

Robot gunboats


This is from the AP, via Fox:

NORFOLK, Va. –  Self-guided unmanned patrol boats that can leave warships they're protecting and swarm and attack potential threats on the water could join the Navy's fleet within a year, defense officials say, adding the new technology could one day help stop attacks like the deadly 2000 bombing of the USS Cole off Yemen.

Robot boats will eventually do a lot more than that. But for now, that's still a lot. Story.

Expedia sucks, Part II*

So after a week of attempted emailing and phone calls, I finally get an email answer telling me that the problem can't be solved via email (duh), and gives me a number to call.

Of course, the number is the generic number that I've tried already, only to be either not called back or hung up on.

So I call the number, work through the phone tree, get on hold and after some unknown number of minutes there -- they said it would be three, but it was far longer - someone picks up and hangs up.

So, my next alternative is cancel the reservation. The only reason I haven't is that I think this was a mistake rather than an actual attempt at hijacking my account (and stealing my money). But maybe I shouldn't think that - and clearly I care more about the people who would be affected than Expedia does.

* See this entry for the background.

Privateering computer systems


In the late 16th century, a small group of sea-going warriors known as the Sea Dogs ravaged the Spanish empire, raiding shipping up and down the Atlantic and as far away as the North American west coast. Though they were not officially part of the British navy, in many ways they did far more to damage Britain's enemies. The Sea Dogs were privateers, attacking vulnerable merchant vessels, killing crew and taking booty. Their most famous member was Francis Drake - or I should say Sir Francis Drake, who knighted for exploits that included his stint with the Sea Dogs.

Privateers were pirates in every sense except one - they were granted immunity by their own government. At different times and places - they operated for more than two centuries - they had direct relationships with the government that sponsored them. Drake "graduated" from privateer and became second in command of the fleet that defeated the Spanish Armada.

Hackers are today's privateers. Not all of them - the majority have no government relationship (and would abhor it) and do their thing for personal reasons, be they kicks or money or both. But the group that hit JP Morgan and several other financial situations over the summer are far more organized than most, and would appear to either have connections with a government - Russia, specifically - or at least be protected by them.

The U.S. has its our own state-sponsored; those working for the NSA are only the best known. (An irony for many reasons.) It's unclear whether the government sponsors privateers as well, but failing to prosecute hackers who attack computers overseas is, in effect, the same thing.

It's warfare by a different name, just as it was in the 16th, 17th, and 18th century. It may be low intensity, but it clearly can do as much damage if not more than an attack by bombs.

As governments countered the privateer threat - and launched their own - the strategy eventually became less effective and died out - after two hundred years. Time is compressed these days, but it's likely going to take something on the order of the destruction of the Spanish Armada to make stopping the widespread attacks more of a priority.

Ever wonder . . .


. . . what a missile launch looks like from inside an F-16?

The trailer for American Sniper. The movie releases in select theaters Dec. 25.

Expedia account secure? Not so much

Use Expedia? Think your information’s secure?

So did I. Until this week.

Monday, I got a notice from Expedia thanking me for arranging my itinerary with them.

Which, you know, was cool, except that I hadn’t.

I hopped on my account and discovered that there was a new itinerary – along with two people I’d never heard of before, who were now trusted travelers, or whatever the website calls people who get tickets associated with your account.

Needless to say, I did the normal security things – changed passwords, deleted credit cards, etc. And, of course, I tried contacting Expedia to straighten out the problem.

I’ve emailed them twice, without an answer. I tried calling – they call you back rather than putting you on hold – twice as well. The first time, I never got a call back; maybe the request didn’t properly register or I didn’t follow some protocol. The second time the operator lost my connection and hasn’t called back.

My only recourse at the moment seems to be to cancel the entire reservation. I’m reluctant to do that, as it will undoubtedly screw the people who actually made it – which, if they’re the victims of an innocent screw-up, really sucks for them. But I will do that if I don’t get at least some contact from Expedia in the next twenty-four hours.

Or maybe I'll just print the boarding pass out and use it myself. In the meantime, guess how much I’ll be recommending Expedia to others . . .

Drone Strike reviewed

A very gracious review from FreshFiction.com:

With a well- constructed and researched plot, readers are instantly pulled in the arid deserts and air space over Iran as Turk gets guided to his mission accompanied only by a small, but highly skilled Delta Force Team and a very nervous and sweat-soaked small plane pilot.

One of the things I also like about the Brown and DeFelice writing team is that they do a very effective balancing act in showing respect for the enemy's (in this case Iran) capabilities and shortcomings and as well as developing the enemy side's characters as realistically human similar to how they develop the American ones. This is both a blessing and a curse as there are many strong and likeable secondary characters in DRONE STRIKE, but the body count is very high. 

Read all about it here.

Raptor's first strike . . .



Before and after:

The F-22 is the most advanced operational air combat fighter in the world, but that doesn't mean it can't throw a bomb or two in its spare time. (The ISIS attacks are the first time the Raptor has been used in the attack role, according to DoD.)

The General's new edition

Regnery History has put out a new trade paper edition of Omar Bradley: General at War. The book is being paired up with some other important titles, and we're hoping for wide circulation - hello, Costco!

Thanks, everyone, for your continued interest.

The ISIS Tooth Fairy


Over the weekend, Turkey announced that it had pulled off the special op of the century, retrieving some four dozen hostages from ISIS without paying a ransom or engaging in an outright attack.

Uh-huh.

One of two things happened:

- either Turkish undercover agents managed to infiltrate ISIS and hoodwinked the captors into letting the hostages go, or

- the Turks did make a deal, just one that may not be technically called a ransom.

Take your pick.

There is one other possibility - and that is some other country (read America) engaged in a rescue mission and made it possible for the hostages to escape; the Turks then took the credit. But in that case, we'll surely hear about it sooner rather than later.

Just an everyday thing . . .




An engine failure is anything but an everyday thing - but you have to admire the absolutely "yeah, we're on it, no problem" tone of the pilot in this emergency announcement after a JetBlue airliner lost its engine. Pros were definitely at the helm.

It was certainly not routine, but definitely routinely handled - no injuries reported.

Next Dreamland . . .


Here's the tentative cover for the book we're working on, due out next year:

More high-tech fun is planned . . .

Turkey's role

One of the more under-reported aspects of the ISIS crisis has been the role of Turkey in facilitating the psychos' success. Not only is Turkey allowing black market sale of oil - a huge benefit to the terrorists, but the group actively recruits in Turkish cities without apparent fear of arrest.

Turkey is a member of NATO. Lying half in Europe and half in Asia, it has striven for acceptance by the West since the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. But over the past decade its responses to backward-looking radical movements in the Middle East have greatly complicated not only its position vis a  vis the West but also perceptions of it.

Turkey's way is not necessarily Europe's or even America's; it has its own future to determine. But sleeping with rabid dogs is never a good idea; they tend eventually to bite.

It wasn't a bunch of rocks


Anatomy of a missile strike - from the report on MH 17, downed over Ukraine:

Damage observed on the forward fuselage and cockpit section of the aircraft appears to indicate that there were impacts from a large number of high-energy objects from outside the plane.

The pattern of damage observed in the forward fuselage and cockpit section of the aircraft was not consistent with the damage that would be expected from any known failure mode of the aircraft, its engines or systems.

The fact that there were many pieces of aircraft structure distributed over a large area, indicated that the aircraft broke up in the air.

That's technical speak for "a missile hit the plane," which of course we already knew. Full report (pdf) here.

The machine writes

But can it think? Well, maybe. As if auto-correct weren't bad enough, soon we'll have auto-thought:

From Apple's website announcing Aple iOS 8:

iOS 8 predicts what you’ll likely say next. 

No matter whom you’re saying it to.

Now you can write entire sentences with a few taps. Because as you type, you’ll see choices of words or phrases you’d probably type next, based on your past conversations and writing style. iOS 8 takes into account the casual style you might use in Messages and the more formal language you probably use in Mail. It also adjusts based on the person you’re communicating with, because your choice of words is likely more laid back with your spouse than with your boss. Your conversation data is kept only on your device, so it’s always private.

And after auto-thought, can auto-act be far behind? How long will it be before machines successfully predict who* a person wants to murder, then carry out the killing?

Boom times for sci-fi writers, surely. Though reality appears to be catching up.

* Relaxed standard speaking English used to differentiate from uptight machine language, which would require formal objective case.

France "suspends" Russian amphib


Item:

PARIS – President Francois Hollande's office says France is suspending the delivery of a hulking warship to Russia amid security concerns about Moscow's actions in neighboring Ukraine.

Story.

But "suspends" is not the same as "cancels." France has already built two of the ships, and there are plans for its Russian "partner" to build others. Good vessels to launch invasions from, especially if you don't happen to live next door.

The class namesake, at its launch:

War with Russia


Western media has finally caught up to the fact of the slow-motion Russian invasion and partitiion of Ukraine.

The real question is, what's next?

As Anne Applebaum puts it in an article entitle "War in Europe - Putin has invaded Ukraine. Is it hysterical to prepare for total war with Russia? Or is it naive not to?" at Slate.com

In the past few days, Russian troops bearing the flag of a previously unknown country, Novorossiya, have marched across the border of southeastern Ukraine. The Russian Academy of Sciences recently announced it will publish a history of Novorossiya this autumn, presumably tracing its origins back to Catherine the Great. Various maps of Novorossiya are said to be circulating in Moscow. Some include Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk, cities that are still hundreds of miles away from the fighting. Some place Novorossiya along the coast, so that it connects Russia to Crimea and eventually to Transnistria, the Russian-occupied province of Moldova. Even if it starts out as an unrecognized rump state—Abkhazia and South Ossetia, “states” that Russia carved out of Georgia, are the models here—Novorossiya can grow larger over time.

Article.

So should Europe (and the U.S.) prepare for war with Russia?

Yes.

We are already there in an economic sense. Putin - and perhaps Russia - will only grow more desperate as the reality of that sinks in.

I'm not advocating war, but I do believe it may be forced upon us.

The invasion continues

From the NY Times:

NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine — Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in this small border town but a wide swath of territory, in what Ukrainian and Western military officials described on Wednesday as a stealth invasion.

Story.

I hate to make the parallel, but Putin's denials are right out of the 1930s.

Russia bares its teeth . . .

From USA Today:

NATO officials said on Friday that Moscow has sent Russian-manned artillery units into Ukraine in recent days and was using them to shell Ukrainian forces as part of a "major escalation" of Russian involvement in the disputed region.

Story.

Can we stop pretending now?

Free Hogs story on Kindle

This special Hogs Birthday short story is free for the next five days. You can download it here.

'A stain on the human race'


ISIS summed up:

ROCHESTER, NH —The grieving parents of journalist James Wright Foley are haunted by their son’s gruesome death at the hand of an Islamic State terrorist.
“He met the most horrific end and it haunts me how much pain he must have been in and how cruel this method of execution is,” said his brokenhearted dad, John, who started sobbing as he spoke outside their home with his wife, Diane, and their son Michael.
“They are a stain on the human race,” he said. “It’s just awful. There simply isn’t enough being done. If more was done, then Jim would be here right now.”

NY Post story. (One of many.)

Everything that's wrong with branding . . .

. . . or maybe pop culture, in one easy-to-loathe moment.

From the NY Times:

Unsure of how best to freshen the musty franchise, the studio commissioned market research, which to its delight found that Lassie retained an 83 percent “brand awareness” among Americans; words like “loyal,” “hero” and “heartwarming” were most often associated with the character.

“We realized that Lassie has an authenticity that makes her a merchandising holy grail,” Mr. Francis said.

Story.

(Nice pun in the headline: Lassie as Salesdog: One More Trip to the Well.)

ISIS finances

For those looking for more information about ISIS, Patrick B. Johnston and Benjamin Bahney have published a summary of their findings on the group's finances, estimating that they are currently taking in some $1 million a day.

From the piece, in the NY Times:

...[The group's] money came mostly from protection rackets that extorted the commercial, reconstruction, and oil sectors of northern Iraq’s economy. The group also made considerable money through war itself, plundering millions of dollars from local Christians and Shiites, whom ISIS views as apostates.
We believe that ISIS will remain financially solvent for the foreseeable future. A conservative calculation suggests that ISIS may generate a surplus of $100 million to $200 million this year that it could reinvest in state-building.

 Johnston-Bahney pp-ed piece.

The View series, mentioned below, shows ISIS the way it wants to be portrayed - which is scary enough. Imagine what it looks like to the people on the ground when the cameras are gone.

Sniper will be a Xmas movie


From Hollywood Reporter:

Nabbing a high-profile release date during the heart of awards season, director Clint Eastwood'sAmerican Sniper will begin rolling out in select theaters on Christmas Day before expanding nationwide Jan. 16.

Story.

Inside ISIS


Vice is running a series of reports from inside ISIS, the so-called Caliphate that has taken over eastern Syria and parts of western Iraq.

Below was the first installment; others are available at their web site here.



The "speed" at which ISIS took over western Iraq is simply a function of the power vacuum there, and the utter disarray and incompetence of the Iran-backed government, which is responsible for much of country's chaos and despair.

This is a highly sanitized version of what a regular person experiences; there are plenty of outright lies (treatment of the Christians) as well as omissions. Still, though the reporting was done under heavy supervision/censorship, the reporting crew displayed singular courage in putting this together.

Besides the gruesome sights, the most chilling thing are the kids. 

RIP

Hunger games . . .

. . . well, not that dire, but talk about cutting off your nose to spite your enemy's face.

Item:

MOSCOW — Russia announced on Thursday that it was banning the import of a wide range of food and agricultural products from Europe and the United States, among others, responding to Western-imposed sanctions and raising the level of confrontation between the West and Moscow over the future of Ukraine.
Dmitri A. Medvedev, the prime minister, announced that Russia would ban all beef, pork, fruit, vegetables and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway for one year.

NY Times story.

An Auto story . . .

Ever wonder what the life of a car means to the people who own it, and vice versa?

Earl Swift explores the intersections in Auto Biography, which focuses on a '57 Chevy wagon and the man who restores it. The book is like a Sunday ride in a hilly country, exploring the different nooks and crannies of Americana. Much to his credit, he doesn't prettify it.

Great summer read.

The future of footnotes . . .

. . . is on the web.

Craig Shirley is accusing Rick Perlstein of plagiarizing his work in The Invisible Bridge - a charge that might be taken more seriously if politics weren't involved and Shirley weren't asking for $25 million in supposed damages. Oh, and if Perlstein hadn't cited Shirley some 125 times.

Putting aside the charges, it's interesting that Perlstein put the footnotes for the book on-line. One of the reasons he said he did this was to keep the length of the book down, a factor I can tell you is actually much more important than most non-authors know. But more interesting is the ability to link those notes to the original sources in many cases, allowing the reader (and other researchers) to explore the sources on their own. It also allows for up-dating and upgrading the notes as time goes on.

The arrangement has been criticized on the grounds that the cites can be put in retroactively; obviously the people saying that are far more interested in playing "gotcha" than actually using the notes in a meaningful way.

I'd love the ability to use inter-active notes with some of my nonfiction books, most notably Rangers at Dieppe and Omar Bradley, General at War. Readers have supplied me with lots of information since the publication of both. While they haven't changed the specific findings in either case, they have added interesting tidbits and shaded a few interpretations. While I talk about them here and on the website when I can, this is no where near as convenient for readers as a dedicated site with links would be.

Of course, the question then would be who maintains it. Even the least expensive hosting arrangements would add expense that most writers couldn't bear over the long haul.

Poirot again?



Sophie Hannah has written a new Poirot novel, bringing one of Agatha Christie's favorite characters back to life.

As a Poirot fan, I'm looking forward to it. But the author has to be pretty brave - some will no doubt declare it sacrilegious, no matter how brilliant the effort.

Advance word has been very good. We'll see in September when the book comes out. (William Morrow is the publisher.) Now if they could just get David Suchet to reprise his role in a new TV series based on the book . . .

Dax, the Animal Destroyer

Dave Bautista is the big attraction in Guardians of the Galaxy, which opens today. He's gotta be the nicest destroyer going. The advance word is the movie is great, and Bautista kills.

Figuratively as well as literally, of course.

If you want to know more about Dave's early life and the bulk of his wrestling career, check out our book, Batista Unleashed. (You can see a preview here.)

Gaza - the blood is on Hamas' hands

As anyone with even a passing familiarity with Hamas could have predicted, civilian casualties in Gaza have climbed - by design.
Not Israel's - Hamas's. The death of their civilians is part of their plans.
Yet the Western media, and a number of Western leaders, rarely if ever acknowledge it. And even when they do, the acknowledgement is couched in mamby-pamby language that clouds the truth rather than illuminates it.
A case in point is a story in the Washington Post today by Terrence McCoy that does a good job attempting to point out what the real situation is. For example, it includes these paragraphs:

According to longtime Mideast analyst Matthew Levitt, Hamas has long planted weapons in areas inhabited by vulnerable residents. “It happens in schools,” he wrote in Middle East Quarterly. “Hamas has buried caches of arms and explosives under its own kindergarten playgrounds,” referencing a 2001 State Department report that said a Hamas leader was arrested after “additional explosives in a Gaza kindergarten” were discovered. . . .
 For years, Hamas has “planned carefully for a major Israeli invasion,” according to a Washington Institute for Near East Policy report. In addition to an elaborate tunnel system, there was the “integral use of civilians and civilian facilities as cover for its military activity; schools, mosques, hospitals, and civilian housing became weapons storage facilities, Hamas headquarters, and fighting positions … IDF imagery and combat intelligence revealed extensive use of civilian facilities.”

But it also begins with attribution presented in a way that inevitably introduces doubt: "alleges" rather than "states," for example, as well as a long paragraph that condemns an Israeli strike.

Don't get me wrong - that story is far, far better than most, since it does make clear that Hamas purposely stores weapons in area where civilians will die if attacked. But it quickly pulls back from making the obvious conclusions that Hamas wants its civilians to die - the weapons are stored in schools and hospitals in an attempt to have Israel kill them. It's as if the writer - or maybe his editors - are afraid to draw that obvious conclusion, because then they would have to admit that Hamas is in fact evil - and not the equivalent of Israel. I'm sure they know it; they just feel they can't say it, because that would mean they weren't objective.

But the object of journalism isn't objectivity; it's truth. And the truth here, even if no one wants to face it, is that a strong faction of Hamas leaders want civilians to die, since those deaths will give them power.

If you're not willing to acknowledge that, you'll never really understand what's going on there.

Overdue . . .

. . . and yet radical at the same time.

Item:

A 20-year Air Force strategic forecast, spurred in part by looming budget constraints, also calls for a faster pace, with lower price tags, in developing both airmen and the technology they use, warning that the current way of acquiring warplanes and weapons is too plodding.

Story. (NYT subscription) What's gone under the radar is how deep some of the cuts to the military have gone. It seems counter-intuitive - maybe even heretical - but it's possible we need to allocate more money to defense, or will in the near future.

Chris Kyle

A statement on the Ventura-Kyle trial result:
(updated 7/30)

The plaintiffs managed to convince eight people that three or four years before anyone ever mentioned the possibility of writing a book to him, Chris Kyle concocted a plot to catapult that unwritten book to fame, lied to his family, friends, attorney and co-writer, and enlisted a dozen or more people in the conspiracy.

I’m not sure whether that’s a statement about American jurisprudence, our education system, or our drinking water.

I stand by the testimony I gave in the case. According to media accounts, eleven witnesses for the defense verified the various aspects of the altercation that Chris and I wrote about in American Sniper. Those witnesses included people who didn’t know Chris, and even admired his accuser. I personally talked to four people who were there, as well as two people who’d spoken to others.

I continue to believe in Chris.

Marine mover . . .




The Marines are looking at a new concept for hitting beaches. This is essentially a promo video for the concept. Remind anyone else of Transformers?

Behind the lines in Ukraine


Interesting piece from a Bloomberg reporter from Russia who was arrested by the Ukrainian authorities:

In eastern Ukraine, one text message can turn you into an enemy. In my case, it was sent to my father. “Talked to Borodai at night,” it said about an interview I had with a rebel leader.

Article.

Dreaming of a Cold War world 

Russia continues to escalate its involvement in Ukraine. From CNN:



Aside from cementing Putin's grand vision of Russia as World Heel, it's hard to see the long-term benefit of any of this to Russia. But what's really baffling are the actions of the rebels, who are fighting for the right to become a rump state beholden to a dictator whose greatest ambition is to return to a 1950s world.

Clearly, teaching history is as out of favor in eastern Europe as it is in the U.S.

Gangsters & detectives

This year marks the 70th anniversary of the release of Double Indemnity, a movie many credit with being the first real Film Noir. In honor of that anniversary and the film, a set of articles is planned over at CriminalElment.com written by Jake Hinkson exploring the genre. Here's a taste of his first entry on Indemnity:

The making of Double Indemnity—particularly the writing of the script—is the stuff of movie legend. Adapted from the novel by James M. Cain, the screenplay was written by director Billy Wilder and novelist Raymond Chandler. This was an impossibly talented duo, though not exactly the match made in heaven that it might have looked like on paper. Chandler was curmudgeonly under the best of circumstances, and he neither approved of Cain’s book (“Everything Cain touches smells like a billygoat”) nor enjoyed working with Wilder (“an agonizing experience”). Perhaps those fat studio paychecks gave him the strength to endure.

The full entry is here.

Film critics and movie buffs can discuss the origins of film noir endlessly -- which movies were the precursors, what was the first, best, worst, etc. One thing that I rarely see, though, are nods to the gangster movies of the 1930s, which to my mind were a big influence, arguably more so than the foreign movies often cited in scholarly discussions.

Here's a scene from Public Enemy (1931), where James Cagney takes in on the chin:



This isn't film noir, but the feel and dialogue could easily fit into the movies a decade later.

Send Russia's LHDs to Japan?


The continuing conflict in Ukraine, to say nothing of the recent downing of the Malaysian airliner, have served to underline just how bad France's decision to sell two amphibious warships to Russia really is.

A story in the Diplomat sums up the situation and gives good background on the vessels:

One of France’s most important but least known naval platforms is the 21,300 ton Mistral-class amphibious assault ship (LHD).  These helicopter carriers have a 69,000 square foot flat top deck with six helicopter landing spots.  Their massive hanger is large enough to hold 16 helicopters, which access the flight deck via heavy lift elevators.  The ships’ size allows them to operate with up to 30 embarked helicopters.  In addition, their vehicle hangers can accommodate 40 main battle tanks, and they provide quarters for up to 500 soldiers or marines.  The troops can be transported to shore by helicopter or by amphibious catamarans housed in the ships’ well dock.  Amphibious operations are controlled from a nearly-10,000 square foot command center fit for 150 officers and staff.  The ships carry a medical facility equivalent to a hospital for a 25,000 inhabitant city with a complex surgery center.

Story.

The writer suggests that the U.S. buy the ships, but a far better customer would be Japan. Given local conflicts over disputed islands, North Korea's continued belligerence and China's growth as a regional military power, the carriers would be a good addition to the naval defense force.

Gaza

Will the pattern repeat itself endlessly?

Hamas provokes and provokes, until finally Israel is forced to take action. Israel responds with restraint and measures unprecedented in the history of warfare, but eventually civilian tolls add up. The media carries stories about Palestinian deaths. Gradually, public pressure builds on Israel.

It's an absurd, cynical, and morally bankrupt strategy employed by Hamas, which uses its the people it's supposed to be protecting as fodder; in the end, it achieves nothing but more misery for Palestinians.

And the most absurd thing of all is that the people of the Gaza Strip voted for Hamas.

Saw Quinn Sullivan a few weeks ago at Saratoga - he keeps getting better and better, and he's already scary good.

Independence Day


I was asked for a few thoughts on July 4th.  Here's an excerpt:

Everyone talks about freedom these days, but I think what a lot of people forget is that freedom is a responsibility more than a right. You have a responsibility to support your neighbors and the community in general. You need a vision of the future, and sometimes to do things that aren’t easy or just fun. Freedom during the revolution meant “volunteering” for the militia, going away from your farm and family for weeks and risking your life. The things most of us do for our country pale by comparison.

The rest of the article is here. Thanks to Elise Cooper and my friends at the American Thinker.

Bench-mark Harrier




Leave it to the Marines . . .

Dunkirk - the miracle of the mirage

One of the things that has always fascinated me about World War II is how the utter embarrassment of the British during the summer of 1940 somehow morphed in popular minds into a great "triumph" centered around Dunkirk. The evacuation of the shattered army is generally treated as a high point of the war, rather than the end result of a chaotic and ill-planned campaign. And not just in the popular imagination, but in (supposedly) serious history books as well.

That apparently fascinated the BBC as well, and they've put together a fine report here (written by Duncan Anderson) putting the evacuation into better perspective. The title of the piece pretty much gives away its slant: "Spinning Dunkirk."

The article can be found here.

It's truly amazing that barely a year or so after the fall of France, British soldiers would look down on the American Army in Africa and elsewhere as hopelessly incompetent. As bad as our Army was - and the Americans certainly had a long way to go after entering the war - nothing the Americans experienced came close to the rout suffered by the British when France fell. But I suppose we all believe what we need to believe.

Shocking, just shocking . . .

The latest on Iraq:

BRUSSELS — Iran is directing surveillance drones over Iraq from an airfield in Baghdad and is secretly supplying Iraq with tons of military equipment, supplies and other assistance, American officials said. Tehran has also deployed an intelligence unit there to intercept communications, the officials said.
The secret Iranian programs are part of a broader effort by Tehran to gather intelligence and help Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government in its struggle against Sunni militants with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Story.

Is Iraq officially a vassal state yet?

World War I

A.O. Scott published an excellent meditation on World War I Friday in the NY Times. Part of his theme:

World War I remains embedded in the popular consciousness. Publicized in its day as “the war to end all wars,” it has instead become the war to which all subsequent wars, and much else in modern life, seem to refer. Words and phrases once specifically associated with the experience of combat on the Western Front are still part of the common language. We barely recognize “in the trenches,” “no man’s land” or "over the top" as figures of speech, much less as images that evoke what was once a novel form of organized mass death. And we seldom notice that our collective understanding of what has happened in foxholes, jungles, mountains and deserts far removed in space and time from the sandbags and barbed wire of France and Belgium is filtered through the blood, smoke and misery of those earlier engagements.

Yet in America, the war seems barely studied in schools, let alone remembered by the general public. Given that the 100th anniversary of its start will be observed next month, I wonder if that will change.

Essay.

Happy Father's Day

Iraq in a nutshell . . .

. . . or I should say "nut graph," as they say in journalism school. From the NYT:

That many Sunnis would prefer to take their chances under a militant group so violent it was thrown out of Al Qaeda sharply illustrates how difficult it will be for the Iraqi government to reassert control. Any aggressive effort by Baghdad to retake the city could reinforce the Iraqi Army’s reputation as an occupying force, rather than a guarantor of security.

That many Sunnis would prefer to take their chances under a militant group so violent it was thrown out of Al Qaeda sharply illustrates how difficult it will be for the Iraqi government to reassert control. Any aggressive effort by Baghdad to retake the city could reinforce the Iraqi Army’s reputation as an occupying force, rather than a guarantor of security

Many of those who fled said they were terrified of possible airstrikes and indiscriminate shelling that they have seen, in news reports, against insurgents in Sunni-dominated Anbar Province, which has been out of government control for more than six months. Some, saying a rumor had been swirling through the local population, even worried that the Americans would be back to bomb their city. And most said the militants in Mosul had not terrorized the population and were keeping a low profile, with a small number of men in black masks staffing checkpoints.

Story. The headline on the story is wrong, as it makes it seem as if the people actually want the mujaheddin. And while ISIS is extremely violent, the break with al Qaeda is far more complicated than the writer glibly states - and let's be real: al Qaeda is not exactly Ghandi. But the general attitude of the fleeing residents toward the government does jibe very much with what I've heard from people there.

This has been several years in the making. Maybe the real question isn't whether Iraq will split up, but what form the Sunni-dominated western country will take. Will the mujaheddin dominate, or will the tribes reassert control?

Iraq




As the country continues to crumble, the Telegraph provides a good overview of developments:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-al-Qaeda-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html

Calls for U.S. involvement so far have largely ignored the fact that Maliki, Iraq's prime minister, has been openly hostile to the U.S. and U.S. forces, and is basically a pawn of Iran. Of course, he's been even worse to his country's Sunni population.

What's about to happen here is the same thing that happened in Syria - Iran is going to intervene on the side of the government; in fact Quds units are already reported inside the country.

Two things:

- though they're getting most of the attention, the ISIS is not the only player among the mujaheddin forces,
- the speed of the takeover is mostly a function of the disillusionment, disorder and corruption on the army and government's side, not the abilities of the mujaheddin.

Things are going to get bloodier before they get better.

‘Killing Patton’

According to various reports, Bill O’Reilly and Martin Dugard plan to take on Patton in the next of their “Killing” series. I'm looking forward to it.

Patton died as a result of an auto accident*, but like a lot of other things these days, a veritable cottage industry has sprung up spinning conspiracies about his death. Presumably O’Reilly and Dugard will put those to rest. They may straighten out a lot of other things as well: much of what we think we “know” about Patton isn’t true, as historians and biographers have said over and over.

Some of it is a little obscure and understandable – like giving Patton credit Patton credit for the final American push in Africa, when it was really Omar Bradley in charge. (Secrecy at the time helped obscure Bradley’s role, and Patton had spent several weeks reshaping the forces (with Bradley) prior to that. But mostly it was due to media fascination and shoddy reporting.)

I suppose there’s little hope that the public can ever be convinced that the so-called “slapping incidents” had a small impact on Patton’s career – Eisenhower had already chosen Bradley to lead the American invasion, and despite the incidents insisted on having Patton as an Army commander (under Bradley and over his initial objections – he wanted Lucian Truscott). But a well-rounded portrait of Patton, pluses and minuses all, may have at least a small influence in how we think of heroes. a more realistic appraisal might help us all.

I’m looking forward to the book as a readable and enjoyable popular introduction to an important person and, from there, important events. It is a bit of departure – until now, O'Reill and Dugard have only looked at people who have been deliberately murdered. I’m sure they don’t need my advice, but I’d love to see them tackle Julius Caesar in the future – not only does his death fit with their original premise, but I think there’s a lot of resonance in his life and times with our own era.

* The car, incidentally, is at the Patton Museum at Fort Knox. I saw it last week when I was there. Completely restored, it’s part of a new and promising exhibit on leadership the museum is putting together.

You'll never hear these phrases come from a zipper suit's mouth . . .

Mosul, Iraq - now controlled by 'militants'

. . .  with 'militants' being another word for terrorists who have indiscriminately killed many civilians. Item:

Militant fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant seized Mosul after battling government forces for control of the northern Iraqi city, extending their reach over the country as central authority crumbles.

The group also captured the airport in Mosul as the Iraqi army pulled out of its positions inside the city, Dubai-based Al Arabiya television station said today, citing the Nineveh governor Athil al-Nujaifi. Images on Al Jazeera satellite television showed cars burning in the city and citizens fleeing the fighting. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called for parliament to declare a state of emergency.

Story.

The "Islamic State of Iraq and Levant" was affiliated with al Qaeda until recently. It's admittedly hard to pin down exact affiliations and alliances, even for Iraqis. But one of the key things going on in Mosul - once the most peaceful major city in Iraq - is the radicalization of Sunnis completely disillusioned and disenfranchised by the Shia government in Baghdad and the east. The majority of people there don't necessarily like ISIL, et al, let alone violence, but they detest the "central" government. The terrorists are the only viable opposition.

We're watching the long-predicted breakup of Iraq into three distinct countries along sectarian lines. The only question is how many innocent people will die in the process.

Rousseau was wrong . . .


. . . but Conrad* was right. At least according to a new theory about why the bones in men's faces are so big.

Item:

violence played a greater role in human evolution than previously thought. 

When modern humans fight hand-to-hand the face is usually the primary target. Dr Carrier and Dr Morgan found that the bones that suffer the highest rates of fracture in fights are the same parts of the skull that exhibited the greatest increase in robusticity during the evolution of fossil hominins.

Story.

Now if we could just get a theory explaining bone-headed behavior . . .

*(Jean-Jacques Rosseau with his noble savages theory, and Joseph Conrad, with Heart of Darkness, et al)

D-Day air drops

The contribution of the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions during the D-Day landings is occasionally overlooked, and even more often misunderstood.

The units that landed on Utah Beach had only a few ways to get off the beach and onto the peninsula proper. The airborne troops not only tied up German defenses inland, but more critically secured those “exits”: roads, crossroads, hamlets and villages that controlled access across swampy and otherwise difficult terrains. Without securing those exits, the troops on Utah could easily have been bottled up. Because of their location, the only feasible way to guarantee they could be taken was by air - a controversial decision at the time, especially given the short but decidedly mixed American experience with paratroopers to that point in the war.

Like most airborne operations in WWII, the drops that preceded the D-Day invasion left troops scattered over the battlefield, and in many cases far from their objectives. Casualties were high. But despite the odds, the paratroopers were able to rally effectively, insuring the invasion's ultimate success. Later on, the 101st secured Carantan, another key turning point in the Normandy campaign, and one that ultimately led to the breakout.

A side note: Maxwell Taylor, the 101st commander, was one of the key generals during the Normandy battles and indeed the entire war. Following the battle, Taylor received the Distinguished Service Medal in recognition for his and his troop’s role in Normandy. This will tell you something about Taylor: Not only did he not expect the award – Omar Bradley arranged to surprise him with it – as far as I can tell Taylor didn’t bother mentioning it (or most of his commendations) in his autobiography. He was a general who not only believed in giving his men credit, but acted on it as well.

A humble achiever – no wonder we won that war.

D-Day . . .



P.S.: I have a (tiny, tiny, tiny) part in The History Channel special, D-Day in HD, which premieres tonight on, duh, History Channel. You can find more information on the series here, and a little bit on how they put it together here. They were a great bunch of people to work with; I was happy to contribute.

NASA, take two . . .

Quote:

“Absent a very fundamental change in the nation’s way of doing business, it is not realistic to believe that we can achieve the consensus goal of reaching Mars,” Mitch Daniels, the former Indiana governor and co-chair of the committee, said Wednesday morning in an interview.

So let's change the way we do business. (Story here. The committee was charged with looking at NASA's long-range plans, including the goal of getting to Mars by 2030.)

Thank you, Kentucky


I had a great time visiting the Blue Grass State this week. The people at the Wayne County Library and up at Fort Knox are some of the friendliest folk I've ever met.

One of the things I truly enjoyed was meeting a bunch of young adults who are interested in history and current events. I was really impressed by their knowledge and enthusiasm. I'm sure they'll be successful in whatever they choose to do.

NASA . . .

. . . and the era of restricted visions - that's what I thought of watching this retro-report of the Space Shuttle program at the NYT. (No embed - here's the link.)

NASA now contracts with the Russians to launch payloads. 'Nuff said.

Now in paperback

The trade paper edition includes a short essay I wrote noting how important history was to Chris Kyle, and includes a little speculation on the eleventh gun he might have added. You can get it at all fine bookstores - even Amazon.

You can even buy it from the publisher's site, here.