Did they get it right this time?


Preliminary reports indicate that the North Koreans exploded another nuclear bomb Monday, with an NK spokesman saying obliquely that this explosion was "larger" than the last" and corrected "problems" in "increasing the power" of nuclear weapons.

In other words, yeah, the first one was a dud, but we got it right this time.

Most of the stories you'll read over the next few days will connect the explosion to political maneuvering over Kim's successor. (One theory: the successor is demonstrating to Kim and-or others his worthiness as a leader.)

But the explosion is also one more step down an increasingly barren path: it lessens North Korea's leverage rather than increasing it in any sort of international negotiations. The weapon(s) can't be used, since everyone knows what the response will be - complete destruction of the North Korean leadership. Once it's clear that North Korea has the technology, the incentive to make a deal with them lessens. The terms for any deal will also become more onerous from North Korea's point of view, since it will always be possible that they are hiding one or more of the nukes somewhere. (See Rogue Warrior: Dictator's Ransom for a plot built on this premise.)

And what does North Korea do if no one wants to negotiate with it? Blow up something, like maybe South Korea?

The rhetoric that comes from North Korea is so psychotic that you can't rule that out. However, assuming at least a modicum of self-serving preservation is still guiding the leadership (whoever it may be), the options are slim and none. At best, the North Koreans could hope for an arms race kicked off by Iran, allowing it to sell technology to the highest bidder (which of course could be the West and-or China).

Iran's successful missile launching earlier this month - coming after North Korea's own failure - was an interesting coincidence. The two countries are presumed to have traded technology before; what the case is now remains pure speculation - or the stuff of techno-thrillers.

The truth is, Monday's nuke test only made North Korea more irrelevant. The problem is, they don't realize that yet . . . and I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for them to do so.