Reality & fiction


Possibly the biggest public fallout from the Iranian plot to assassinate a Saudi diplomat in the U.S. has come from foreign policy "experts" who can't believe they would be so stupid.

The incredulity runs along these lines, as expressed by Afshon Ostovar in Foreign Policy:

Given the Quds Force's modus operandi, it is odd that its commanders would entrust an unprecedentedly brazen attack against a foreign diplomat on U.S. soil to a former used-car salesman and Mexican drug-cartel hit men. Manssor Arbabsiar, the Iranian expatriate at the center of the plot, bears no resemblance to a covert operative, and any personal or familial connections he may have with Quds Force commanders does not explain his apparent role in facilitating the operation. The Quds Force also has no known connections with Mexican drug cartels, and enlisting them to carry out the terrorist attack runs counter to the Quds Force's established pattern of working with long-standing, trusted contacts.

Finally, and perhaps most puzzlingly, the plot does not seem to fit Iran's larger strategic objectives, whether regarding its relations with the United States, its relations with Saudi Arabia, or its relations with the international community. It makes little sense that Iranian authorities would choose such a drastic, extreme measure at this time, especially when such an act would do little to advance Iran's prevailing goals, would assuredly provoke a harsh response by the United States, and would further tarnish Iran's already poor global reputation. No matter how one looks at it, it is difficult to imagine how such an act would not severely jeopardize the security of the Iranian regime. If maintaining power and stability is what is driving Iran's current leadership, such an attack would be of no apparent value.

(Story here.)

Now I don't know anything about this plot and whether it really was anything more than creative (or uncreative) thinking on the part of the individuals or even the agents who were tracking it. But I can say that in real life, absurd wishful thinking and whacked (not in a good sense) plotting is more than the norm that nearly everyone thinks.

We all have this vision of our enemies being outrageously powerful and intelligent. It ain't so. And for the record, we ain't so perfect either.

I have to say that as far as Quds Force goes - I don't know where anyone got the idea that they're models of efficiency and professionalism. Maybe by comparison with a few other groups in the region. But that's not really the point.

The funny thing is that, if you're writing fiction, you are constantly having to make both the bad guys and the guys look a hell of a lot more competent than they would be in real life. It's ironic - real life is so cliched and accidental that it's unbelievable when you write about it.