Item:
Iran Threatens to Block Oil Shipments, as U.S. Prepares Sanctions
NYT story. (And may other places.)
If Iran actually did try and block the Gulf, the question wouldn't be whether the U.S. would respond, but rather whether the response would end only with the elimination of the country's nuclear plants and other capabilities. You'd have to expect the government would be targeted as well.
The tiny navy would be wiped out within a few hours, if that. Ditto the air force.
And I guess you'd have to change the handicap on Obama's reelection chances, no matter what.
Of course, eventually they might be in a position to get weapons even after the shellacking. But without a doubt, they'd get them a lot faster by continuing to pretend that they're complying, which is what I expect they'll end up doing, tossing in just enough window dressing to give everyone political cover and avoid a war.
Giving the U.S. - and Israel - an excuse to attack them is not particularly smart. Oh, wait . . .
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