Iraq


From the Christian Science Monitor, a somewhat better story than most on Iraq, as it gets at some of the subtleties most of the mainstream press misses:

Iraq has a major crisis on its hands, make no mistake.

The country's civil war never really ended – it just went off the boil for a while. Last year, the heat was turned back to high, with the number of civilian deaths from political violence doubling to roughly 8,000 people over the previous year, the highest civilian death toll since at least 2008.

With the civil war raging in Syria and a porous border between Syria and Iraq's Anbar and Nineveh Provinces that has allowed militants – many of them jihadis in the style of Al Qaeda – to flow back and forth pretty much at will, Iraq's central government has a major challenge on its hands. It doesn't help that Iraq has parliamentary elections scheduled for this April and that its political polarization breaks down largely on sectarian lines.

Story. (Make sure to follow the jump.)

I disagree with some of his conclusions in one important respect - the crisis clearly could lead to practical autonomy for different regions of the country, which is presumably one of the overall aims of the mujihadeen (who over course would then attempt to dominate that region). In that respect, it's more serious than the writer seems to suggest, though he does leave that question open.

A couple of things to note:

1. Many Iraqis use "al Qaeda" as shorthand for Sunni mujihadeen groups in general, without necessarily distinguishing between the different groups or their affiliations, how close they are to the bin Laden organization (or each other). So it's very confusing for a westerner to parse the different alliances.

2. Tribal alliances are still very significant in the politics of Iraq, and the fighting.

3. There is a general feeling among Sunnis that the present government is not only overly dominated by Shiites, but is a handmaiden of Shia Iran. There is an element there of nationalism that is often missed -- some feel that Iran is making Iraq a subordinate client state, and the present government is helping them do it. Many Iraqis can cite numerous insults against the country, starting with the position (or non-presence) of the Iraqi flag on state visits to Iran by dignitaries, and vice versa.