What a coincidence . . .


Four U.S. minesweepers (or MCMs, mine countermeasures ships, officially) have arrived in the Gulf.:


(Reuters) - Four U.S. minesweepers have arrived in the Gulf to bolster the U.S. Fifth Fleet and ensure the safety of shipping routes, the U.S. Navy said, as an Iranian military chief suggested on Monday that Iranmight try to block the Strait of Hormuz to defend its interests.
The four additional mine countermeasures (MCM) ships arrived on Saturday and are scheduled for a seven-month deployment in an area of operations that includes the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

Reuters.

Because:


Iran can restrict oil tankers’ access to the Strait of Hormuz based on its “right of retaliation” when a European Union embargo on its oil starts next week, said Kayhan’s editor-in-chief, Hossein Shariatmadari.
Iran’s “hands aren’t tied” when it comes to the embargo that will come into force on July 1 and it can respond to the “bellicose undertaking” by barring access to tankers transporting oil for countries enforcing the sanctions, Shariatmadari wrote in an editorial published yesterday.
Iran can act in line with its rights under the 1958 Convention on the Territorial Sea, said the head of the Tehran- based daily who was appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Businessweek.

Shariatmadari is basically the loud mouth for the hardliner faction. There's a lot of posturing maneuvering in the leadership behind the announcements that's not caught in the news stories, but the general gist is clear - Iran is threatening to shut down oil shipping through the Gulf if no one will buy its oil. (Except on the black market, of course.)

Oil sanctions go into effect next Sunday. While the general interpretation of Iran's bluster is that it's intended to help its negotiating power, any military action by Iran will legitimize strikes against not just their naval assets, but the nuclear infrastructure. Or to rephrase an old saying, Be careful what you bluff for . . .


No comments: