The Rogue as statesman


Why does Marcinko, with a reputation as a wildman, sound more reasonable than any secretary of state we've had since Marshall?

North Korea and China seem particularly close. Would China risk a war over North Korea?

China has a full plate now and I don't think it is in their strategic makeup, let alone their interest, to go to war over North Korea – not right now, at least. They are busy modernizing their armed forces. They were impressed with our "shock & awe" and realize they need to gear up. But the future may be a different story. Remember, their clock ticks a lot slower than ours and they are patient.

China is a concern in its own right. Their army has recently begun training with Russian forces in both China and Russia. That is a "point of interest” we should be looking at.

It’s recently been reported that Korean leader Kim Jong il suffered a serious stroke. Do you have any opinion on who might succeed him?

The bloodline is the normal path; Kim Jong il succeeded his father, and it’s believed that he will choose one of his sons to succeed him. He may already have; we simply don’t know. But Kim Jong il’s bloodlines are, to put it delicately, irregular – besides his natural and acknowledged children, he has some illegitimate and adopted offspring. Things could get pretty complicated.

I believe at least one and more likely two or more of his offspring will attempt to inherit the throne. The army will not trust any of them and will aim to take over in a military coalition. I think the military will succeed and take over, at least in the short term, probably working with one of Kim’s sons as a figurehead.

I do know this: There is no one in the wings with the leadership skills that are required to lead a impoverished nation. None of Kim’s children, or military leaders for that matter, have experience nor international exposure to gain support or approval.

But like all developing nations, there’s the issue of greed over need – they greedy hold onto their power once they get it. The needs of the people will be pushed aside.

Would a new regime in North Korea present a challenge or an opportunity to the U.S.?

A military regime would most likely revert to a "Fortress North Korea" mentality. That could be an extreme problem for us, since they would be reverting to the only thing they know: war and aggression, both internationally and internally. The country will become an even worse police state than it is today. Which is hard to believe.

* Who he? Marshall was the guy with the plan - during Truman's administration, he got Europe back on its feet. He was also part of the group that came up with the idea of containing the Soviet Union so it would collapse. And oh yeah, he led the American army during WWII, and served for a year as defense secretary (during the Korean War).