North Korea's nukes


Over the weekend, the North Korean military stirred the geo-political pot by announcing that they were taking an "all-out confrontational posture" toward South Korea. At the same time - more or less - North Korean officials also said that they had "weaponized" roughly 31 kilograms of plutonium. (The general consensus is that that amount translates into four to six bombs; the actual amount used depends on the specific design.)

Those developments are in sharp contrast to the government's recent overtures to the Obama administration, including a request (denied, as far as I know) to attend the inauguration.

More of the same from North Korea, which has always believed in the carrot and stick approach when negotiating? Or is there a power struggle going on for control after (or maybe even before) Kim Jong il, now in bad health, dies or steps down?

The latter seems most likely. The statements by the military seem designed to show that it controls the country's might - and that Kim's successor must come to terms with it if he wants to rule.

Will North Korea's army give up the nuclear weapons if they see that as their most important "chip" in internal politics?

Maybe.

On the other hand, if you were playing poker, would you discard three aces and try to win with only a pair of deuces?

Richard Marcinko on North Korea

. . . and our new entrant in the Rogue Warrior series, Dictator's Ransom...

If there were a conventional war between North Korea and South Korea, who would win?


If the war was contained between those two nations – not a given – then it would be a matter of where the bulk of the combat took place. North Korea can bear down on Seoul with over two hundred and thirty tubes of heavy artillery in minutes; it has the masses of ground troops "on the line" to overpower the immediate line of contact. The question would then become how fast the South Korean forces could strike back. If North Korea penetrated a significant distance south, the South Korean population might cut and run to preserve their better way of life rather than dig in and fight the onslaught.


South Korea’s strategy would be to stop the attack and go deep into North Korea to sever the command and control networks. Where would they stop? Probably at the Chinese border.


One way or another, it would be a blood bath on both sides, a conventional war comparable, at least on the tactical level, to World War II.



If South Korea would ultimately prevail, why should we worry?


We’d have big worries if South Korea prevailed – who would they turn to to help support the masses they liberated?


The social responsibility would be on a level the world is not prepared for. In Darfur, 400,000 people are estimated to have died from the war and starvation. A Korean war would produce at least ten times that number of casualties – and maybe even a hundred times.


It does remind me of an old joke, a bit of dark humor: Attack the U.S.A. and let them kick your ass. Then they’ll rebuild you. It's far cheaper than a World Bank loan!



Is it really possible that North Korea and-or terrorists could attack the U.S.?


North Korea has missiles that could reach Alaska. How accurate they are is an open question, but then nuclear weapons don’t have to be all that accurate. A strike by North Korea would probably fall short and hit the ocean, ending up as more an embarrassment more than a real loss for us. Another example of the tail wagging the dog.


Of course, if we were attacked, hell would be too good for the leaders who launched the missiles.



Is there a connection between North Korea and international terrorists?


The connection is primary of supply and demand, not ideology. The North Koreans have nukes the terrorists want and need, and the terrorists may have the finances North Korea wants. At this juncture, our best bet is to better monitor what’s going on.



Your new book and upcoming computer game seem to advocate a SEAL-like approach to dealing with North Korea and terrorists. Is that realistic?


It is realistic as a demonstration of our “will” to contain North Korean aspirations. Spec Warfare is not a panacea; it doesn’t replace "boots on the ground" in full-scale military operations and it can’t replace diplomatic or political activity. Shooters are not diplomats or world leaders. But it is an important tool in the modern world. A SEAL-like approach to problems and situations as outlined in the book, in all my books, has numerous advantages. We have to keep that capability sharp. It gets us “eyes on targets” – human beings with real intelligence observing things close up, rather that through tiny electronic devices thousands of miles away. And successful SEAL-like strikes, when appropriate, sting the sleeping dog, putting the world on notice that we are not focused on only oil and the Middle East but the much broader threat of fanatical terrorism.



How close are your books to real life - are they fiction? Non-fiction? Prediction?


The books are a combination of fiction and prediction, as I said earlier. They are a means to show people the threats I see. I write them from the perspective of what I would do if I were the bad guy. That’s the same tactic and philosophy that drove me in the SEALs, in Red Cell, and in my later military and private endeavors. I take the enemy’s mindset, and then I try to tell our side what’s going on, where our weaknesses – and strengths – are.


And, I hope, the books entertain you along the way.

The Rogue as statesman


Why does Marcinko, with a reputation as a wildman, sound more reasonable than any secretary of state we've had since Marshall?

North Korea and China seem particularly close. Would China risk a war over North Korea?

China has a full plate now and I don't think it is in their strategic makeup, let alone their interest, to go to war over North Korea – not right now, at least. They are busy modernizing their armed forces. They were impressed with our "shock & awe" and realize they need to gear up. But the future may be a different story. Remember, their clock ticks a lot slower than ours and they are patient.

China is a concern in its own right. Their army has recently begun training with Russian forces in both China and Russia. That is a "point of interest” we should be looking at.

It’s recently been reported that Korean leader Kim Jong il suffered a serious stroke. Do you have any opinion on who might succeed him?

The bloodline is the normal path; Kim Jong il succeeded his father, and it’s believed that he will choose one of his sons to succeed him. He may already have; we simply don’t know. But Kim Jong il’s bloodlines are, to put it delicately, irregular – besides his natural and acknowledged children, he has some illegitimate and adopted offspring. Things could get pretty complicated.

I believe at least one and more likely two or more of his offspring will attempt to inherit the throne. The army will not trust any of them and will aim to take over in a military coalition. I think the military will succeed and take over, at least in the short term, probably working with one of Kim’s sons as a figurehead.

I do know this: There is no one in the wings with the leadership skills that are required to lead a impoverished nation. None of Kim’s children, or military leaders for that matter, have experience nor international exposure to gain support or approval.

But like all developing nations, there’s the issue of greed over need – they greedy hold onto their power once they get it. The needs of the people will be pushed aside.

Would a new regime in North Korea present a challenge or an opportunity to the U.S.?

A military regime would most likely revert to a "Fortress North Korea" mentality. That could be an extreme problem for us, since they would be reverting to the only thing they know: war and aggression, both internationally and internally. The country will become an even worse police state than it is today. Which is hard to believe.

* Who he? Marshall was the guy with the plan - during Truman's administration, he got Europe back on its feet. He was also part of the group that came up with the idea of containing the Soviet Union so it would collapse. And oh yeah, he led the American army during WWII, and served for a year as defense secretary (during the Korean War).

On North Korea:

The purloined Rogue Warrior - Richard Marcinko interview continues.

What happens if North Korea does agree to get rid of its bombs? Will it still be a problem?

RW: They will not totally disband. They will lie to their benefit. We would probably do the same under the guise of "national interest."

Their bombs and nuclear material are not the only threats we have to contend with. They’ve already shared their nuclear expertise. Again, I won’t go into details, but it’s not hard to discover the connection between Pakistan’s bomb program and North Korea’s. The whole Syria matter was in the news recently. And those are only two well-known examples.

No matter what they agree to, North Korea is likely to retain a capability to jump start a nuclear weapons program. They’re going to do that; there’s no doubt in my mind. But even if they truly and totally disbanded their program and somehow eliminated the knowledge that makes that capability possible, they will still be a regional problem.

If only because of the shear numbers in the armed forces, North Korea will remain a threat to South Korea and possibly Japan for years to come. Invading South Korea represents an opportunity to unite their homeland. Beyond that, it would also give them a bread basket – or a rice bowl, to be more literal. It would lay open all of the technological advances the south enjoys, at a fraction of the price of South Korea paid to develop them. It’s a very tempting bowl of candy, right there on their kitchen counter.

Will North Korea attack? Maybe, if they believe the rest of the world is "too busy" with other problems of the day.

More Rogue . . .

The Bush administration has recently entered into an agreement with North Korea that, ultimately, should result in its getting rid of its nuclear weapons making capability. Do you think North Korea can be trusted to follow through on any agreements?

RW: My answer is somewhere between “NO!” and “HELL NO!” It is not to their advantage. They will remain the tail attempting to wag the dog.

But they have already agreed. Can we make them live up to that agreement?

RW: They’ve already backtracked, threatening to rebuild the reactor they destroyed under the agreement. But yes, the international players – the U.S., Japan, South Korea, China – should try to hold them to everything they’ve agreed to do, and more. There will be no guarantees. Again, they have little or nothing to lose by pushing back. They will continue to challenge the world like a young child with selective hearing.

Do you see alternatives to the present policy of negotiating with North Korea?

RW: We certainly do not have a military option. The only action we can afford to take today would be a series of strategic strikes – missiles and bombs, no boots on the ground. That would entail a lot of collateral damage that politically we can't afford and don't want to deal with at this time, especially during a time of transition from one president to another.

The months leading up to the election and immediately afterward are going to be our most vulnerable time – I’d say from now through at least the first 100 days of the new administration. Whoever is elected. We have a marvelous team but we are out of bench!!

So you endorse the present policy?

RW: Let’s say I’m not criticizing it.

It's easy to "Monday morning quarterback". We didn't take North Korea serious enough for too long. We have few experts, little knowledge and virtually no HUMINT [human intelligence – information gathered by spies and other human sources] in the area. We have to rely on third nation input for everything. And I never trust my translators.

Speaking of Rogue Warrior




You can order from Amazon here, and Barnes and Noble here.

The book's website is here.

The Rogue Warrior meets the press

I purloined the transcript from one of Dick Marcinko's interviews about the new book. It's supposed to get posted to the book's website soon. In the meantime, I'll post some here.

Hopefully it makes interesting reading.

Your new book, Rogue Warrior: Dictator’s Ransom, is set largely in North Korea. Was that a random choice?


Richard Marcinko: One of the things I’ve always tried to do in my fictional books is alert the general public to what’s going on outside of America. The plots come out of real dangers around the world. The books are a means to tell our citizens about the threats I see as a SEAL with a lot of CT [counter-terrorism] experience. I call it “fiction or prediction” – yes, the stories are mostly made up, but they depict situations and events that do exist or will very shortly.

I chose to focus on North Korea this time because it is a rogue – little ‘R’ – nation. They have very few ties to other countries with the exception of China and, though their relationship is not exactly ideal, South Korea. On the other hand, North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world. Unclassified estimates put the overall military force at one million men; that’s out of a total population of 23 million in a country about the size of Mississippi.

Just for comparison’s sake, roughly 2.3 million Americans serve in the U.S. military, including our reserves and the guy who mops the floor at the Pentagon every night. If we had the same proportion of people in uniform that North Korea does, our armed forces would have over 13 million members. And I’m not counting North Korea’s reserves and other components in my totals.

I can’t get into the debate about how many nuclear weapons North Korea has or may have; much of the information is highly classified. But anyone with access to the internet can use a search engine to find fairly knowledgeable sources who estimate they may have more than a dozen weapons. Even the optimists say they have at least six.

The world doesn’t know enough of North Korea’s internal functions nor goals. And the reverse is also true – North Koreans know nothing of the outside world. But here’s what we do know: The North Korean economy is in shambles. People are starving there. With hunger and the economy such serious issues, North Korea must turn to China, and Russia as well, for assistance. To help them get the aid that they want, they focus on us as a threat. In effect what they’re doing is giving China and Russia a chance to irritate us through a surrogate that anyone can flush without anyone missing them. North Korea is a "dispensable pawn" on the world stage. It’s what they have to do to eat.

It’s a dangerous game for us, and also for them. But with their people starving, they’re a cornered rat with nothing to lose in anything they attempt, whether it is invading South Korea or selling nuclear weapons to terrorist who will gladly pay for the toys.


The Bush administration has recently entered into an agreement with North Korea that, ultimately, should result in its getting rid of its nuclear weapons making capability. Do you think North Korea can be trusted to follow through on any agreements?

My answer is somewhere between “NO!” and “HELL NO!” It is not to their advantage. They will remain the tail attempting to wag the dog.

Rogue Warrior: Dictators Ransom update

People ask about the signing schedule . . .

Dick is doing some signings at military bases on the east coast around the middle of October when the book comes out. He's also probably going to be in San Antonio during that same period doing appearances there. Last I heard, nothing has been set up in NYC, but that may change.

The schedule is actually set by the publisher, but it has to coordinate with Dick's schedule, which can be pretty nutso.

We're hoping to get a list of the appearances on the book's website: www.dictatorsransom.com shortly. You can also go from there to Dick's main site, which is a good way to keep up with him directly.

Truth is, I'm a flea on the back of the dog when it comes to most of the promotion stuff for Rogue Warrior. We have a publicity manager as well as people at the publisher who handle all that. Dick handles the appearances and the interviews himself as a general rule.

Me - pretty much I stay in the bar and drink beer. Who the hell wants to hear me talk?

Trouble in (the workers) paradise . . .

The North Korean nuke soap opera continues . . .

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's threat to restart its plant that makes arms-grade plutonium is feasible, although the task would be a daunting one, analysts said on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the communist state said that because the United States had not kept to its side of a disarmament-for-aid deal it would stop disabling a Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear complex and was considering getting back into the plutonium business. . . .

Kind of makes it sound like the kids' lemonade stand down the street, doesn't it? 'If we're bored tomorrow, we'll open up that stand and make a dollar so we can buy ice cream . . .'

Contrary to what most of the commentators talking to the news media say, North Korea's leverage decreases as time goes on. And as the world economy continues to tank, there'll be less to extort - er, negotiate - from other countries.

Then what do they do?

Rogue Warrior trailer

Just another day at the office for the Rogue Warrior . . .




That's version 1...

Rogue Warrior - Fact or Fiction?

North Korea blew up the cooling tower to its big, bad nuke reactor Friday . . .



A definite step toward . . . peace?

To get the full story, you'll have to read Rogue Warrior: Dictator's Ransom this fall.

Wheels of progress dept.
(Rogue Warrior update)

As promised:

(The standard disclaimers apply.)

We move slowly toward the pub date of the new Rogue Warrior - Dictator's Ransom - which the publisher has now declared will "officially" be available in mid-October.

Unofficially, I've heard that bootleg excerpts, complete with all our (my*) mistakes, are already circulating. Apparently someone xeroxed part of the early/unedited manuscript for a few friends. Bad, bad, bad...

It's nice that people like it and all, etc., etc., but come on guys - it ain't finished until it's finished. And we don't get paid for this bootleg stuff. So thanks, but ...

That goes double for the after-action report (not ours). The source is supposedly being tracked down due to "client" (aka government) concerns. (A word to the wise - all the originals were coded. So if you're the one responsible, watch your back. But you should know that already . . .)

Dick's shooting some "real" promo videos this weekend about the book. (The ones already on the internet are actually test jobs, but I like 'em.) Lawyers are supposedly going to clamp down on how much he can say - ha, ha, ha, you know how much of a chance that has of succeeding.

The cover's not finalized; I'll put it up as soon as it makes its way to me. (No, I'm not holding my breath.)

That's all I know.

* - It's my job to put in the mistakes. I think it's the one part of the task that I can say without bragging that I excel at.

Roguishly speaking . . .



Gotta love him.

Who leaked the new Rogue Warrior plot?

Apparently the world's favorite slimebag dictator has a spy at Tor-Forge, where Dick Marcinko and I recently delivered the latest installment of the Rogue Warrior* series . . .

Kim Jong-il calls reports of his ill health "fiction"

Thu Oct 4, 2007 6:18am EDT

SEOUL, Oct 4 (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Thursday denied he was in bad health, saying reports of him showing sign of illness were the work of "fiction writers."

Kim, 65, has been the subject of persistent speculation in the South about his health, and his less-than-robust appearance at a summit meeting with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun this week triggered more rumours that he may be seriously ill.

"They are reporting as if I have diabetes and even heart disease, but that's not the case at all," Kim said at a luncheon he hosted for the visiting South Korean leader.

* * *

The tentative title on the book, by the way, is DICTATOR'S RANSOM . . . It's due out some time next year, before or after the computer game . . .

* Rogue Warrior is a trademark, and if there's one person in the world I wouldn't fuck with, it's Dick...