They're ain't no sense there


I laugh when I read stories by analysts trying to puzzle out what Kim, et al, were trying to accomplish or thought they accomplished or did accomplish by having Hilary's squeeze smile for pictures the other day.

You're trying to interpret a dust storm, boys. Crazy people don't make sense, except to themselves. Even if they have guns, or in this case, nuclear weapons.

But hey, it gives me another chance to plug the book. Now in hardcover; out in softcover in a few weeks.

North Korea's nukes


Over the weekend, the North Korean military stirred the geo-political pot by announcing that they were taking an "all-out confrontational posture" toward South Korea. At the same time - more or less - North Korean officials also said that they had "weaponized" roughly 31 kilograms of plutonium. (The general consensus is that that amount translates into four to six bombs; the actual amount used depends on the specific design.)

Those developments are in sharp contrast to the government's recent overtures to the Obama administration, including a request (denied, as far as I know) to attend the inauguration.

More of the same from North Korea, which has always believed in the carrot and stick approach when negotiating? Or is there a power struggle going on for control after (or maybe even before) Kim Jong il, now in bad health, dies or steps down?

The latter seems most likely. The statements by the military seem designed to show that it controls the country's might - and that Kim's successor must come to terms with it if he wants to rule.

Will North Korea's army give up the nuclear weapons if they see that as their most important "chip" in internal politics?

Maybe.

On the other hand, if you were playing poker, would you discard three aces and try to win with only a pair of deuces?

Everybody likes the new Rogue Warrior . . .

. . . . even our good friend Kim.

This week, the world's favorite ailing dictator issued a statement saying, "Not only am I alive and well, but I owe my health to my good friend and drinking buddy, Dick Marcinko."

(At least I think that's what he said; my Korean is a little rusty.)

The book's website:

www.dictatorsransom.com

The carnage continues . . .

But in a good way - The Rogue Warrior holiday book signing tour continues as Dick & company march through the eastern seaboard . . . next up is a signing at the Borders in Stafford, Virgina, where the man himself will be the featured attraction at their annual open house.

Rumor has it a number of Marines from Quantico are planning to give the RW a hard time - should be a fun show.

The wonders of Photoshop



The North Koreans released a photo of the Great Leader front and center and a military bash over the weekend . . . the only problem was the photo was very obviously Photoshopped. (You can read the story here, courtesy of the BBC.)

So is Kim il-Jong on his deathbed?

That's been the theory for several months. What happens when he finally dies?

Dick Marcinko speculated on that during some of the interviews for our new Rogue Warrior book. You can read some of the interview at www.Dictators Ransom.com; basically his take is that North Korea may become even more dangerous, as the military and the pretenders to Kim's throne maneuver to take control.

Will North Korea's next leader feel secure enough to abandon the nuclear program and stop developing (and exporting) missile technology? The truth is, we know so little about North Korea that it's impossible to say.

The Man himself ...



The Extended Book on Rogue Warrior: Dictator's Ransom

Richard Marcinko on North Korea

. . . and our new entrant in the Rogue Warrior series, Dictator's Ransom...

If there were a conventional war between North Korea and South Korea, who would win?


If the war was contained between those two nations – not a given – then it would be a matter of where the bulk of the combat took place. North Korea can bear down on Seoul with over two hundred and thirty tubes of heavy artillery in minutes; it has the masses of ground troops "on the line" to overpower the immediate line of contact. The question would then become how fast the South Korean forces could strike back. If North Korea penetrated a significant distance south, the South Korean population might cut and run to preserve their better way of life rather than dig in and fight the onslaught.


South Korea’s strategy would be to stop the attack and go deep into North Korea to sever the command and control networks. Where would they stop? Probably at the Chinese border.


One way or another, it would be a blood bath on both sides, a conventional war comparable, at least on the tactical level, to World War II.



If South Korea would ultimately prevail, why should we worry?


We’d have big worries if South Korea prevailed – who would they turn to to help support the masses they liberated?


The social responsibility would be on a level the world is not prepared for. In Darfur, 400,000 people are estimated to have died from the war and starvation. A Korean war would produce at least ten times that number of casualties – and maybe even a hundred times.


It does remind me of an old joke, a bit of dark humor: Attack the U.S.A. and let them kick your ass. Then they’ll rebuild you. It's far cheaper than a World Bank loan!



Is it really possible that North Korea and-or terrorists could attack the U.S.?


North Korea has missiles that could reach Alaska. How accurate they are is an open question, but then nuclear weapons don’t have to be all that accurate. A strike by North Korea would probably fall short and hit the ocean, ending up as more an embarrassment more than a real loss for us. Another example of the tail wagging the dog.


Of course, if we were attacked, hell would be too good for the leaders who launched the missiles.



Is there a connection between North Korea and international terrorists?


The connection is primary of supply and demand, not ideology. The North Koreans have nukes the terrorists want and need, and the terrorists may have the finances North Korea wants. At this juncture, our best bet is to better monitor what’s going on.



Your new book and upcoming computer game seem to advocate a SEAL-like approach to dealing with North Korea and terrorists. Is that realistic?


It is realistic as a demonstration of our “will” to contain North Korean aspirations. Spec Warfare is not a panacea; it doesn’t replace "boots on the ground" in full-scale military operations and it can’t replace diplomatic or political activity. Shooters are not diplomats or world leaders. But it is an important tool in the modern world. A SEAL-like approach to problems and situations as outlined in the book, in all my books, has numerous advantages. We have to keep that capability sharp. It gets us “eyes on targets” – human beings with real intelligence observing things close up, rather that through tiny electronic devices thousands of miles away. And successful SEAL-like strikes, when appropriate, sting the sleeping dog, putting the world on notice that we are not focused on only oil and the Middle East but the much broader threat of fanatical terrorism.



How close are your books to real life - are they fiction? Non-fiction? Prediction?


The books are a combination of fiction and prediction, as I said earlier. They are a means to show people the threats I see. I write them from the perspective of what I would do if I were the bad guy. That’s the same tactic and philosophy that drove me in the SEALs, in Red Cell, and in my later military and private endeavors. I take the enemy’s mindset, and then I try to tell our side what’s going on, where our weaknesses – and strengths – are.


And, I hope, the books entertain you along the way.

The Rogue as statesman


Why does Marcinko, with a reputation as a wildman, sound more reasonable than any secretary of state we've had since Marshall?

North Korea and China seem particularly close. Would China risk a war over North Korea?

China has a full plate now and I don't think it is in their strategic makeup, let alone their interest, to go to war over North Korea – not right now, at least. They are busy modernizing their armed forces. They were impressed with our "shock & awe" and realize they need to gear up. But the future may be a different story. Remember, their clock ticks a lot slower than ours and they are patient.

China is a concern in its own right. Their army has recently begun training with Russian forces in both China and Russia. That is a "point of interest” we should be looking at.

It’s recently been reported that Korean leader Kim Jong il suffered a serious stroke. Do you have any opinion on who might succeed him?

The bloodline is the normal path; Kim Jong il succeeded his father, and it’s believed that he will choose one of his sons to succeed him. He may already have; we simply don’t know. But Kim Jong il’s bloodlines are, to put it delicately, irregular – besides his natural and acknowledged children, he has some illegitimate and adopted offspring. Things could get pretty complicated.

I believe at least one and more likely two or more of his offspring will attempt to inherit the throne. The army will not trust any of them and will aim to take over in a military coalition. I think the military will succeed and take over, at least in the short term, probably working with one of Kim’s sons as a figurehead.

I do know this: There is no one in the wings with the leadership skills that are required to lead a impoverished nation. None of Kim’s children, or military leaders for that matter, have experience nor international exposure to gain support or approval.

But like all developing nations, there’s the issue of greed over need – they greedy hold onto their power once they get it. The needs of the people will be pushed aside.

Would a new regime in North Korea present a challenge or an opportunity to the U.S.?

A military regime would most likely revert to a "Fortress North Korea" mentality. That could be an extreme problem for us, since they would be reverting to the only thing they know: war and aggression, both internationally and internally. The country will become an even worse police state than it is today. Which is hard to believe.

* Who he? Marshall was the guy with the plan - during Truman's administration, he got Europe back on its feet. He was also part of the group that came up with the idea of containing the Soviet Union so it would collapse. And oh yeah, he led the American army during WWII, and served for a year as defense secretary (during the Korean War).

On North Korea:

The purloined Rogue Warrior - Richard Marcinko interview continues.

What happens if North Korea does agree to get rid of its bombs? Will it still be a problem?

RW: They will not totally disband. They will lie to their benefit. We would probably do the same under the guise of "national interest."

Their bombs and nuclear material are not the only threats we have to contend with. They’ve already shared their nuclear expertise. Again, I won’t go into details, but it’s not hard to discover the connection between Pakistan’s bomb program and North Korea’s. The whole Syria matter was in the news recently. And those are only two well-known examples.

No matter what they agree to, North Korea is likely to retain a capability to jump start a nuclear weapons program. They’re going to do that; there’s no doubt in my mind. But even if they truly and totally disbanded their program and somehow eliminated the knowledge that makes that capability possible, they will still be a regional problem.

If only because of the shear numbers in the armed forces, North Korea will remain a threat to South Korea and possibly Japan for years to come. Invading South Korea represents an opportunity to unite their homeland. Beyond that, it would also give them a bread basket – or a rice bowl, to be more literal. It would lay open all of the technological advances the south enjoys, at a fraction of the price of South Korea paid to develop them. It’s a very tempting bowl of candy, right there on their kitchen counter.

Will North Korea attack? Maybe, if they believe the rest of the world is "too busy" with other problems of the day.

More Rogue . . .

The Bush administration has recently entered into an agreement with North Korea that, ultimately, should result in its getting rid of its nuclear weapons making capability. Do you think North Korea can be trusted to follow through on any agreements?

RW: My answer is somewhere between “NO!” and “HELL NO!” It is not to their advantage. They will remain the tail attempting to wag the dog.

But they have already agreed. Can we make them live up to that agreement?

RW: They’ve already backtracked, threatening to rebuild the reactor they destroyed under the agreement. But yes, the international players – the U.S., Japan, South Korea, China – should try to hold them to everything they’ve agreed to do, and more. There will be no guarantees. Again, they have little or nothing to lose by pushing back. They will continue to challenge the world like a young child with selective hearing.

Do you see alternatives to the present policy of negotiating with North Korea?

RW: We certainly do not have a military option. The only action we can afford to take today would be a series of strategic strikes – missiles and bombs, no boots on the ground. That would entail a lot of collateral damage that politically we can't afford and don't want to deal with at this time, especially during a time of transition from one president to another.

The months leading up to the election and immediately afterward are going to be our most vulnerable time – I’d say from now through at least the first 100 days of the new administration. Whoever is elected. We have a marvelous team but we are out of bench!!

So you endorse the present policy?

RW: Let’s say I’m not criticizing it.

It's easy to "Monday morning quarterback". We didn't take North Korea serious enough for too long. We have few experts, little knowledge and virtually no HUMINT [human intelligence – information gathered by spies and other human sources] in the area. We have to rely on third nation input for everything. And I never trust my translators.

So shoot me . . .



People scold me for forgetting to link to the website: www.DictatorsRansom.com

Click here to pre-order the book from B&N online.

Rogue Warrior: Dictators Ransom update

People ask about the signing schedule . . .

Dick is doing some signings at military bases on the east coast around the middle of October when the book comes out. He's also probably going to be in San Antonio during that same period doing appearances there. Last I heard, nothing has been set up in NYC, but that may change.

The schedule is actually set by the publisher, but it has to coordinate with Dick's schedule, which can be pretty nutso.

We're hoping to get a list of the appearances on the book's website: www.dictatorsransom.com shortly. You can also go from there to Dick's main site, which is a good way to keep up with him directly.

Truth is, I'm a flea on the back of the dog when it comes to most of the promotion stuff for Rogue Warrior. We have a publicity manager as well as people at the publisher who handle all that. Dick handles the appearances and the interviews himself as a general rule.

Me - pretty much I stay in the bar and drink beer. Who the hell wants to hear me talk?

North Korea, China, et al . . .

I was accused of being too flip in that last post, which is funny, because I thought I wasn't flip enough . . .

See, here's the thing: North Korea is at best a side show. The big fact of life that we'll be dealing with over the next - I don't know, hundred years? certainly the decade - is China.

The Olympics were a glitzy promo, with China pulling out all the stops to put its best face forward, while a few miles from the games people were still scratching a living out of the dirt . . . but make no mistake: that face you saw is the future. China - and all of Asia - kicks our butt in many, many ways. And part of the reason is that they just plain work harder than we do.

Sucks to say, but it's the truth.

In many ways, China's development is a good thing - the place is a heck of lot less scary now than it was a decade ago. But we have to be serious about our infrastructure, our education, our investment, or we're going to find we're the third world country a decade from now.

I never thought I'd recommend a Thomas Friedman* column, but a lot of what he says here is right on:

NY Times link

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/opinion/27friedman.html?ex=1377576000&en=1b1efd63601e7e7a&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink.

As for North Korea, the fact that they have to resort to nuclear blackmail just shows how out of it they really are. Doesn't mean we can ignore them, of course.

Now all I have to do is figure out what being flip means, and I'll be having a good day . . .

* He oughta stop with that flat earth bs... a gimmick's a gimmick, but this one was doa before it arrived. Poor Columbus is probably turning over in his grave... And for those of you who don't like the Times - hold your nose and read it anyway...

Trouble in (the workers) paradise . . .

The North Korean nuke soap opera continues . . .

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's threat to restart its plant that makes arms-grade plutonium is feasible, although the task would be a daunting one, analysts said on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the communist state said that because the United States had not kept to its side of a disarmament-for-aid deal it would stop disabling a Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear complex and was considering getting back into the plutonium business. . . .

Kind of makes it sound like the kids' lemonade stand down the street, doesn't it? 'If we're bored tomorrow, we'll open up that stand and make a dollar so we can buy ice cream . . .'

Contrary to what most of the commentators talking to the news media say, North Korea's leverage decreases as time goes on. And as the world economy continues to tank, there'll be less to extort - er, negotiate - from other countries.

Then what do they do?

Rogue Warrior trailer

Just another day at the office for the Rogue Warrior . . .




That's version 1...

Rogue Warrior - Fact or Fiction?

North Korea blew up the cooling tower to its big, bad nuke reactor Friday . . .



A definite step toward . . . peace?

To get the full story, you'll have to read Rogue Warrior: Dictator's Ransom this fall.